🌊 Lakefront
11 Pardee Blvd · Browns Mills, NJ
Flood risk 7/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.77%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $526 – $976
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 103°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 62.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +26.2/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.9/10.0
- 1% rule +8.1/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.3/10.0
- Appreciation +1.6/10.0
$200,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Warmer weather is almost here! This beautifully renovated Lakeview home is the perfect retreat. Enjoy your coffee on the enclosed front porch overlooking the water or grab your fishing pole whenever you'd like. This quaint homes offers so much more than its lake proximity. The step saving kitchen boasts superior 42 inch shaker style cabinets complete with "soft close" doors & sleek modern knobs. Dark granite against a simple, yet elegant, white subway tile back splash is crisp and stylish. Upgraded stainless steel appliances, including a gas range & French door refrigerator with lower freezer drawer. Just down the hall is the Master Suite, a good size room with recessed lighting, modern ceiling fan with remote, large closet, and luxurious master bath. Here the attractive oversized white marble tiles set the tone of elegance for your master bath, brand new dual flush toilette, a sleek 3 drawer vanity, & a tasteful vanity light is the perfect finishing touch. The oversized marble shower surround is sure to impress even the pickiest buyer set against a vintage style octagon tiled bottom. This is a very well appointed bathroom. There are 2 additional guest rooms with ceiling fans as well as an equally beautiful main bath. Other items worth noting are the new Gas Heater and Central Air Conditioning, New Roof shingles, new flooring, new windows, fresh paint, and New hot water heater. (all between 2020 and 2021)
Key facts
- Built 1924
- Listed 16 days
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: No garage
- Utilities: Public sewer
- Home design: Fee simple ownership
- Exterior features: Shingle roof
Interior
- Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Stove hood; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Blinds/Shades; No fireplace
- Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($988/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
- Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.2% in Browns Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
- Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.31% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.35%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.90%
- DSCR
- 1.49
- GRM
- 6.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $318,443
- List price
- $200,000
- Delta
- -37.19%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 123 Pardee | 0.07mi | 3/1.0 | 1,038 (+8%) | 12mo | $355,000 | $342 | 69 |
| 601 E Lakeshore Dr | 0.49mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 961 (0%) | 1mo | $168,000 | $175 | 67 |
| 444 Sassafras St | 0.20mi | 3/1.0 | 1,080 (+12%) | 1mo | $300,000 | $278 | 65 |
| 118 Syringa St | 0.19mi | 3/1.0 | 1,080 (+12%) | 2mo | $345,000 | $319 | 64 |
| 123 Lilac St | 0.17mi | 3/1.0 | 1,092 (+14%) | 3mo | $374,000 | $342 | 63 |
| 156 Dennis Ave | 0.20mi | 3/1.0 | 1,056 (+10%) | 10mo | $355,000 | $336 | 62 |
| 123 Clover St | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,080 (+12%) | 14mo | $380,000 | $352 | 57 |
| 302 Lakeview Blvd | 0.35mi | 3/1.0 | 1,071 (+11%) | 5mo | $300,000 | $280 | 56 |
| 27 Carlisle St | 0.63mi | 3/1.0 | 984 (+2%) | 8mo | $345,000 | $351 | 56 |
| 237 Garden Ave | 0.30mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 1,092 (+14%) | 4mo | $300,000 | $275 | 51 |
| 355 Wildrose St | 0.61mi | 3/1.0 | 1,092 (+14%) | 8mo | $325,000 | $298 | 38 |
| 34 Olive St | 0.51mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 824 (-14%) | 7mo | $275,000 | $334 | 38 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -13.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.52×
- Total profit
- $-26,756
- Equity at exit
- $29,821
- IRR
- -4.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.73×
- Total profit
- $-14,888
- Equity at exit
- $17,292
Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 08068
- Home prices YoY
- -2.1%
- Active inventory
- 44
- Price-to-rent
- 6.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,613 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,049
- Tax from tax record
- −$423 /mo · $5,081/yr
- Insurance
- −$83
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$549
- Net cashflow
- $82
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $196 | -5% $139 | +0% $82 | +5% $26 | +10% $-31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-124 | -5% $-21 | +0% $82 | +5% $186 | +10% $289 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $183 | -0.5pp $133 | base $82 | +0.5pp $31 | +1.0pp $-22 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $50,000
- Closing costs
- $6,000
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 5 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 453 Bayberry St Browns Mills, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1032 | $2,700 | $2.62 | 1d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 126 Juniper Ave Browns Mills, NJ | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1092 | $2,500 | $2.29 | 19d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 601 E Lakeshore Dr Browns Mills, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 961 | $2,595 | $2.70 | 10d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 27 Carlisle St Browns Mills, NJ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 984 | $2,900 | $2.95 | 44d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 28 Alfred Dr Unit 28 ALD Browns Mills, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 784 | $1,650 | $2.10 | 44d | 1 | 0.81mi |
Listing history 16 events
-
2026-05-17status Pending 1116-char remark
-
2026-05-01$200,000 Active 1116-char remark
-
2025-12-19historical
-
2025-11-13price $255,000
-
2025-09-05$260,000 Active
-
2025-08-09historical
-
2021-05-22soldstatus $205,000
-
2021-05-11historical
Show marketing remark (1461 chars)
Warmer weather is almost here! This beautifully renovated Lakeview home is the perfect retreat. Enjoy your coffee on the enclosed front porch overlooking the water or grab your fishing pole whenever you'd like. This quaint homes offers so much more than its lake proximity. The step saving kitchen boasts superior 42 inch shaker style cabinets complete with "soft close" doors & sleek modern knobs. Dark granite against a simple, yet elegant, white subway tile back splash is crisp and stylish. Upgraded stainless steel appliances, including a gas range & French door refrigerator with lower freezer drawer. Just down the hall is the Master Suite, a good size room with recessed lighting, modern ceiling fan with remote, large closet, and luxurious master bath. Here the attractive oversized white marble tiles set the tone of elegance for your master bath, brand new dual flush toilette, a sleek 3 drawer vanity, & a tasteful vanity light is the perfect finishing touch. The oversized marble shower surround is sure to impress even the pickiest buyer set against a vintage style octagon tiled bottom. This is a very well appointed bathroom. There are 2 additional guest rooms with ceiling fans as well as an equally beautiful main bath. Other items worth noting are the new Gas Heater and Central Air Conditioning, New Roof shingles, new flooring, new windows, fresh paint, and New hot water heater. (all between 2020 and 2021)
-
2021-04-30soldstatus $205,000 Closed
Show marketing remark (1461 chars)
Warmer weather is almost here! This beautifully renovated Lakeview home is the perfect retreat. Enjoy your coffee on the enclosed front porch overlooking the water or grab your fishing pole whenever you'd like. This quaint homes offers so much more than its lake proximity. The step saving kitchen boasts superior 42 inch shaker style cabinets complete with "soft close" doors & sleek modern knobs. Dark granite against a simple, yet elegant, white subway tile back splash is crisp and stylish. Upgraded stainless steel appliances, including a gas range & French door refrigerator with lower freezer drawer. Just down the hall is the Master Suite, a good size room with recessed lighting, modern ceiling fan with remote, large closet, and luxurious master bath. Here the attractive oversized white marble tiles set the tone of elegance for your master bath, brand new dual flush toilette, a sleek 3 drawer vanity, & a tasteful vanity light is the perfect finishing touch. The oversized marble shower surround is sure to impress even the pickiest buyer set against a vintage style octagon tiled bottom. This is a very well appointed bathroom. There are 2 additional guest rooms with ceiling fans as well as an equally beautiful main bath. Other items worth noting are the new Gas Heater and Central Air Conditioning, New Roof shingles, new flooring, new windows, fresh paint, and New hot water heater. (all between 2020 and 2021)
-
2021-03-10status Pending
Show marketing remark (1461 chars)
Warmer weather is almost here! This beautifully renovated Lakeview home is the perfect retreat. Enjoy your coffee on the enclosed front porch overlooking the water or grab your fishing pole whenever you'd like. This quaint homes offers so much more than its lake proximity. The step saving kitchen boasts superior 42 inch shaker style cabinets complete with "soft close" doors & sleek modern knobs. Dark granite against a simple, yet elegant, white subway tile back splash is crisp and stylish. Upgraded stainless steel appliances, including a gas range & French door refrigerator with lower freezer drawer. Just down the hall is the Master Suite, a good size room with recessed lighting, modern ceiling fan with remote, large closet, and luxurious master bath. Here the attractive oversized white marble tiles set the tone of elegance for your master bath, brand new dual flush toilette, a sleek 3 drawer vanity, & a tasteful vanity light is the perfect finishing touch. The oversized marble shower surround is sure to impress even the pickiest buyer set against a vintage style octagon tiled bottom. This is a very well appointed bathroom. There are 2 additional guest rooms with ceiling fans as well as an equally beautiful main bath. Other items worth noting are the new Gas Heater and Central Air Conditioning, New Roof shingles, new flooring, new windows, fresh paint, and New hot water heater. (all between 2020 and 2021)
-
2021-01-28$199,900 Active
Show marketing remark (1461 chars)
Warmer weather is almost here! This beautifully renovated Lakeview home is the perfect retreat. Enjoy your coffee on the enclosed front porch overlooking the water or grab your fishing pole whenever you'd like. This quaint homes offers so much more than its lake proximity. The step saving kitchen boasts superior 42 inch shaker style cabinets complete with "soft close" doors & sleek modern knobs. Dark granite against a simple, yet elegant, white subway tile back splash is crisp and stylish. Upgraded stainless steel appliances, including a gas range & French door refrigerator with lower freezer drawer. Just down the hall is the Master Suite, a good size room with recessed lighting, modern ceiling fan with remote, large closet, and luxurious master bath. Here the attractive oversized white marble tiles set the tone of elegance for your master bath, brand new dual flush toilette, a sleek 3 drawer vanity, & a tasteful vanity light is the perfect finishing touch. The oversized marble shower surround is sure to impress even the pickiest buyer set against a vintage style octagon tiled bottom. This is a very well appointed bathroom. There are 2 additional guest rooms with ceiling fans as well as an equally beautiful main bath. Other items worth noting are the new Gas Heater and Central Air Conditioning, New Roof shingles, new flooring, new windows, fresh paint, and New hot water heater. (all between 2020 and 2021)
-
2020-11-10soldstatus $90,500
-
1993-05-10soldstatus $74,500
-
1991-06-13soldstatus $24,750
-
1984-08-01soldstatus $27,000
-
1978-11-01soldstatus $23,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,081 · $423/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,081 · $423/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 77% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,359
- − Mortgage interest
- −$11,203
- − Property taxes
- −$5,081
- − Insurance
- −$6,118
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,509
- − Management
- −$2,509
- − Depreciation
- −$5,818
- Taxable loss
- −$1,879
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$451
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,439/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pemberton Township School District
- NCES district ID
- 3412810
- Math proficiency
- 12% ▼ -14.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 38% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $60,951
- Composite
- 23.0/100
- National rank
- #7979
- State rank
- #382 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Browns Mills
- Score
- 63/100
- State rank
- #436
- US rank
- #15864
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Browns Mills, NJ
- Population (ZIP)
- 6,811
Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 453,425 people
- By 2030
- 452,359 · -0.2%
- By 2040
- 445,033 · -1.9%
- By 2050
- 431,760 · -4.8%
- By 2075
- 406,277 · -10.4%
- By 2100
- 364,732 · -19.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Burlington
- 2024 margin
- D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -6.80%
- Current HPI
- 315.5986
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
|
||
| Technology | 2 | $21B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
|
||
Price history
+769.6% since first listed16 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-17 Pending — MOMLS
- 2026-05-01 Listed $200,000 MOMLS
- 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2025-11-13 Price Changed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2025-09-05 Listed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2025-08-09 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
- 2021-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
- 2021-05-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2021-03-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2021-01-28 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2020-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
- 1993-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
- 1991-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $24,750 Public Records
- 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
- 1978-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+5.1%/yrLatest (2025): $5,081 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…