23 Almond Dr · Toms River, NJ 08753

$499,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1966 0.33 ac lot $314/sqft · 18% below area Est $610k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5BR 2BA home nestled in the heart of desirable Silverton. Hardwood floors throughout the main floor, plush carpeting on the lower level. Large kitchen with ample cabinet space and fully fenced in yard on a corner lot. Full bath on each floor for convenience. Come be a part of Silverton's thriving community today!

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Ample cabinet space
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PLUSH CARPETING
• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $500k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $368,359 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $609,546
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -17.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Oak Hill Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+0%)	12mo	$585,000	$367	78
130 Shasta Ln	0.30mi	5/2.0	1,746 (+10%)	9mo	$565,000	$324	63
68 Shasta Ln	0.33mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,592 (0%)	21mo	$539,900	$339	60
100 Aida Way	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-0%)	17mo	$605,000	$381	58
113 Holly Tree Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+1%)	12mo	$550,000	$341	57
144 Marilyn Dr	0.60mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,588 (-0%)	13mo	$590,000	$372	54
27 Shasta Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-4%)	20mo	$485,000	$319	51
18 Silver Creek Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-11%)	15mo	$440,000	$311	49
37 Bimini Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (+10%)	11mo	$600,000	$344	39
230 Aldo Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (+5%)	22mo	$536,000	$321	36
200 Silver Bay Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,823 (+14%)	5mo	$408,000	$224	33
19 Ardmore Dr	0.72mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,388 (-13%)	8mo	$490,000	$353	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-114,263
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-157,203
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,188/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,235

Max offer price $422,982

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Brookfield Dr Brick, NJ	4.0	2.0	1634	$3,300	$2.02	19d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $499,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    historical $3,200

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    5BR 2BA home nestled in the heart of desirable Silverton. Hardwood floors throughout the main floor, plush carpeting on the lower level. Large kitchen with ample cabinet space and fully fenced in yard on a corner lot. Full bath on each floor for convenience. Come be a part of Silverton's thriving community today!

11. 2026-05-19
    status Pending 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    5BR 2BA home nestled in the heart of desirable Silverton. Hardwood floors throughout the main floor, plush carpeting on the lower level. Large kitchen with ample cabinet space and fully fenced in yard on a corner lot. Full bath on each floor for convenience. Come be a part of Silverton's thriving community today!

12. 2026-04-21
    price $499,900 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    5BR 2BA home nestled in the heart of desirable Silverton. Hardwood floors throughout the main floor, plush carpeting on the lower level. Large kitchen with ample cabinet space and fully fenced in yard on a corner lot. Full bath on each floor for convenience. Come be a part of Silverton's thriving community today!

13. 2026-03-20
    listed $525,000 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    5BR 2BA home nestled in the heart of desirable Silverton. Hardwood floors throughout the main floor, plush carpeting on the lower level. Large kitchen with ample cabinet space and fully fenced in yard on a corner lot. Full bath on each floor for convenience. Come be a part of Silverton's thriving community today!

14. 2026-03-10
    listed $3,200
15. 2024-12-04
    historical $3,400
16. 2024-11-22
    listed $3,400
17. 2012-10-07
    soldstatus $150,000 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    * script to follow

18. 2012-10-01
    soldstatus $150,000
19. 2012-08-09
    listed $159,900 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    * script to follow

20. 1979-07-01
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,188 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,318 · $776/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,130/yr (+$261/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$6,188
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,536
• − Management: −$3,536
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$14,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,384
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-93.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Rental Removed $3,200 MOMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $499,900 MOMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $525,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed for Rent $3,200 MOMLS
• 2024-12-04 Rental Removed $3,400 MOMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed for Rent $3,400 MOMLS
• 2012-10-07 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MOMLS
• 2012-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-09 Listed $159,900 MOMLS
• 1979-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,188 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.