261 Parsons Rd · Shelter Cove, CA 95589

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1997 0.32 ac lot $78/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 189 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.6% in Shelter Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,268 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, housing D.
• Southern Humboldt Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #928 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.84%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,184
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -72.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Vista Rd	0.50mi	3/— (+1)	1,476 (-4%)	1mo	$530,000	$359	64
9046 Shelter Cove Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-2%)	7mo	$270,000	$180	62
336 Nob Hill Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,694 (+10%)	2mo	$450,000	$266	59
599 Nob Hill Ct	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,460 (-5%)	23mo	$675,000	$462	52
28 View Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-8%)	17mo	$290,000	$204	46
533 Seafoam Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,652 (+8%)	13mo	$510,000	$309	44
113 Spur Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+8%)	10mo	$465,000	$281	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,459
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $32,515
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95589

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,582/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $119,900 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $129,900 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

19. 2026-03-04
    price $155,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

20. 2026-02-10
    price $170,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

21. 2026-01-15
    price $181,950 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

22. 2025-12-09
    listed $190,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    This home needs all from top to bottom. Put your creative imagination and special touches to work and make this yours in beautiful Shelter Cove. Lots of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥75°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,582
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $3,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Humboldt Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637590
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,108
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #11197
• State rank: #928 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Shelter Cove

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1268
• US rank: #26424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelter Cove, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,467

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 5% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.58%
• Current HPI: 107.0105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-36.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $119,900 HAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $129,900 HAR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $155,000 HAR
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $170,000 HAR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $181,950 HAR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $190,000 HAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,582 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.