51 Orchard St · Marlboro, NY 12542

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1956 6,000 sqft lot $195/sqft · 37% below area Est $359k · 37% under ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of the Hudson Valley, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home at 51 Orchard Street offers incredible potential and breathtaking Hudson River views. Full of character and warmth, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas and creativity to transform it into something truly special. The kitchen and rear deck both overlook the Hudson River, providing a stunning backdrop for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the scenic landscape. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and plenty of natural light throughout. The unfinished basement presents an excellent opportunity to expand living space and create a full, usable lower level with the right vision. While the home could benefit from cosmetic updates, its location, views, and solid footprint make it an exceptional opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to customize a Hudson Valley retreat. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, wineries, and commuter routes, this property combines small-town charm with easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Subject to short sale approval.

Key facts

• Wineries
• Unfinished basement
• Rear deck

Tags

• HUDSON RIVER VIEWS
• REAR DECK
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS
• WINERIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.0% in Marlboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#347 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute D-.
• Marlboro Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #366 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlboro Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,505 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 761 students, 0% FRL); Marlboro Middle School (math 36% / reading 43%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 433 students, 45% FRL); Marlboro Central High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,206
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -37.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Orchard St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (+6%)	1mo	$370,000	$303	74
9 Grand St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-12%)	17mo	$245,000	$240	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $135,148
• Equity at exit: $185,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $373,257
• Equity at exit: $384,512

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12542

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$627 /mo · $7,527/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $504	+0% $441	+5% $377	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $324	+0% $441	+5% $558	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $554	-0.5pp $498	base $441	+0.5pp $382	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Hudson West Dr Marlboro, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1347	$3,275	$2.43	15d	2	0.50mi
198 South St Marlboro, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $225,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   price $225,000 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the Hudson Valley, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home at 51 Orchard Street offers incredible potential and breathtaking Hudson River views. Full of character and warmth, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas and creativity to transform it into something truly special. The kitchen and rear deck both overlook the Hudson River, providing a stunning backdrop for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the scenic landscape. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and plenty of natural light throughout. The unfinished basement presents an excellent opportunity to expand living space and create a full, usable lower level with the right vision. While the home could benefit from cosmetic updates, its location, views, and solid footprint make it an exceptional opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to customize a Hudson Valley retreat. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, wineries, and commuter routes, this property combines small-town charm with easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Subject to short sale approval.

3. 2026-05-12
   status Active 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the Hudson Valley, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home at 51 Orchard Street offers incredible potential and breathtaking Hudson River views. Full of character and warmth, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas and creativity to transform it into something truly special. The kitchen and rear deck both overlook the Hudson River, providing a stunning backdrop for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the scenic landscape. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and plenty of natural light throughout. The unfinished basement presents an excellent opportunity to expand living space and create a full, usable lower level with the right vision. While the home could benefit from cosmetic updates, its location, views, and solid footprint make it an exceptional opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to customize a Hudson Valley retreat. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, wineries, and commuter routes, this property combines small-town charm with easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Subject to short sale approval.

4. 2026-02-05
   listed $259,999 Active 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Nestled in the heart of the Hudson Valley, this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home at 51 Orchard Street offers incredible potential and breathtaking Hudson River views. Full of character and warmth, this home is ready for its next owner to bring fresh ideas and creativity to transform it into something truly special. The kitchen and rear deck both overlook the Hudson River, providing a stunning backdrop for morning coffee, outdoor dining, or simply relaxing while enjoying the scenic landscape. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with comfortable living space and plenty of natural light throughout. The unfinished basement presents an excellent opportunity to expand living space and create a full, usable lower level with the right vision. While the home could benefit from cosmetic updates, its location, views, and solid footprint make it an exceptional opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to customize a Hudson Valley retreat. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants, wineries, and commuter routes, this property combines small-town charm with easy access to everything the Hudson Valley has to offer. Subject to short sale approval.

5. 2026-02-02
   status Active
6. 2026-02-02
   historical
7. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-02
   price $261,250
9. 2025-11-20
   price $279,000
10. 2025-11-07
    price $294,500
11. 2025-10-13
    price $289,000
12. 2025-08-18
    price $369,000
13. 2025-08-05
    price $389,000
14. 2025-07-08
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,527 · $627/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,527 · $627/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$7,527
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $2,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618570
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $68,737
• Composite: 43.7/100
• National rank: #2953
• State rank: #366 of 590 in NY

Livability — Marlboro

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #5847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlboro, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,859

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Current HPI: 325.4749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-43.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $259,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $261,250 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $294,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $389,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,527 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.