818 Independence Trl · Josephine, TX 75173

$233,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.25 ac lot $137/sqft · 16% below area Est $266k · 13% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21208181 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Step inside from the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath at the front of the home. A linen closet and laundry room are located just off the hallway for added functionality. At the heart of the home, the kitchen opens to the dining area and family room, creating a spacious main living space. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A rear patio is accessible from the dining area, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the laundry room.

Key facts

• Linen closet
• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LINEN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN OPENS TO DINING AREA
• REAR PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 485 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 51% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,444
• List price: $233,000
• Delta: -12.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Shady Bank Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+0%)	11mo	$318,990	$186	67
505 Jasmine Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+6%)	5mo	$275,000	$152	66
913 W Cook St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-10%)	9mo	$525,000	$344	66
406 Shady Bank Way	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+1%)	8mo	$319,235	$186	66
1402 Centerline Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-5%)	3mo	$309,990	$191	64
511 Magnolia Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-10%)	4mo	$219,900	$144	63
503 Plum Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (-7%)	2mo	$225,000	$142	60
505 Plum Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,891 (+11%)	4mo	$265,000	$140	51
602 Mallard Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,903 (+12%)	0mo	$264,000	$139	47
506 American Elm Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,916 (+13%)	4mo	$279,490	$146	46
404 American Elm Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,916 (+13%)	7mo	$273,990	$143	41
306 American Elm Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,916 (+13%)	8mo	$318,490	$166	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $138,359
• Equity at exit: $209,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $398,234
• Equity at exit: $452,668

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 87 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,828

Max offer price $233,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $247	+0% $181	+5% $115	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $100	+0% $181	+5% $262	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $240	base $181	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	0d	1	0.41mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	21d	1	0.41mi
503 Northern Red Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$1,925	$1.00	12d	1	0.56mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	59d	1	0.58mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,300	$1.09	0d	1	0.63mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	38d	1	0.70mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,799	$1.09	9d	1	0.77mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	64d	1	0.77mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	93d	1	0.80mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,650	$0.96	1d	1	0.87mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	38d	1	0.90mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	73d	1	0.95mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	1.06mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	42d	1	1.11mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	93d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	56d	1	1.17mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	3d	1	1.17mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	73d	1	1.20mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,050	$0.99	34d	1	1.21mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	20d	1	1.24mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	4d	1	1.25mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	38d	1	1.26mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	26d	1	1.26mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	54d	1	1.26mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	56d	1	1.27mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	48d	1	1.27mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.27mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	93d	1	1.37mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	73d	1	1.39mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	62d	1	1.40mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	0d	1	1.42mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	28d	1	1.42mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	93d	1	1.42mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	25d	1	1.42mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,995	$1.08	4d	1	1.42mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,856	$0.99	12d	1	1.45mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	1.45mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	1.47mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $233,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $233,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $233,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $233,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $233,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $233,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $233,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $233,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $235,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $235,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $235,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $235,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $235,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $235,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $235,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $235,000 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $235,000 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $235,000 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $235,000 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    remarks 623-char remark
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $235,000 Active 121 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $235,000 Active 120 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $235,000 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $235,000 Active 118 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 117 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $235,000 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $235,000 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $235,000 Active 107 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $235,000 Active 106 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $235,000 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $235,000 Active 96 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $235,000 Active 95 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $235,000 Active 90 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 86 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 85 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,264 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,269/yr (+$272/mo · 328.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$1,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $2,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,510–$25,530 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathroom, and the exterior and interior are well-maintained. The home is ready to move in and can be enhanced with some cosmetic updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace flooring in bedrooms — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Install modern lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can brighten the space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $235,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $250,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $264,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $264,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $266,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $266,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $267,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $267,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $271,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Listed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Listed $269,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.