512 Bartlett Loop · Headland, AL 36345

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1993 ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home for sale as is

Key facts

• Built 1993
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.8% in Headland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#101 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #55 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 71 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.65%
• DSCR: 4.63
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,680
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Bartlett Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	2mo	$121,900	$68	83
445 Bartlett Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	2mo	$121,900	$68	83
609 Bartlett Loop	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	2mo	$75,000	$48	82
206 Bradford Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-0%)	9mo	$115,000	$69	76
172 Hazel Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-6%)	4mo	$120,000	$76	75
309 Cherry Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	12mo	$172,000	$96	70
200 Apricot Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+14%)	5mo	$162,000	$84	60
133 Peach Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	8mo	$132,000	$92	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $62,028
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.85×
• Total profit: $146,197
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36345

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $343/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $459

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,157	-5% $1,141	+0% $1,124	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,091
Rent	-10% $975	-5% $1,050	+0% $1,124	+5% $1,198	+10% $1,273
Rate	-1.0pp $1,154	-0.5pp $1,139	base $1,124	+0.5pp $1,109	+1.0pp $1,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Tanglewood Dr Headland, AL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,800	$1.11	44d	1	0.85mi
124 Tanglewood Dr Headland, AL	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,975	$1.33	44d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $59,000 Active
17. 2008-08-08
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$343
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $13,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,194
• After-tax cash flow: $10,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 0101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,502
• Composite: 27.78/100
• National rank: #6894
• State rank: #55 of 129 in AL

Livability — Headland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #11540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,838
• Population (ZIP): 8,838

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,109 people
• By 2030: 16,928 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 16,376 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 15,778 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 14,491 · -15.3%
• By 2100: 12,673 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 16% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.3% · R 75.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+43.0 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+29.4 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.45%
• Current HPI: 213.0749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $59,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $343 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.