220 Hawthorn Park Cir · Yulee, FL 32097

$442,290

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2024 4,375 sqft lot Est $438k · at est. $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This new construction Juniper Bungalow showcases our Low-Country Elevation and features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs loft, 2-car garage in the rear, and ample storage throughout. This home boasts open-concept living with a beautiful Gourmet Kitchen with Built-In Whirlpool Appliances, White Cabinets accented with Tender Gray Subway Tile Backsplash, Quartz Countertops, and large center Island that all opens to your spacious Gathering Room and Café. Just beyond the Café is a Covered Lanai perfect for providing outdoor entertainment. The second floor offers a variety of bedrooms, Laundry Room, a full bathroom, and the Owner's Suite, which features a large Walk-In Closet, D

Key facts

• 4,375 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $442k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-789 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.3% in Yulee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildlight Elementary (math 90% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,025 students, 34% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($429k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $296,579 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,170
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 Stillwater Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,038 (0%)	9mo	$397,000	$195	90
556 Stillwater Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,038 (0%)	9mo	$396,690	$195	89
561 Stillwater Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,038 (0%)	9mo	$396,190	$194	89
540 Stillwater Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,038 (0%)	10mo	$397,490	$195	89
572 Stillwater Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,038 (0%)	10mo	$400,000	$196	88
292 Hawthorn Pk Cir	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,139 (+5%)	8mo	$498,000	$233	77
553 Stillwater Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-11%)	8mo	$390,990	$215	66
564 Stillwater Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-11%)	10mo	$385,000	$212	63
314 Continuum Loop	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,183 (+7%)	4mo	$738,316	$338	47
241 Coveted Pl	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,179 (+7%)	7mo	$725,000	$333	46
250 Daydream Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (-8%)	1mo	$413,325	$222	42
277 Continuum	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-11%)	8mo	$519,730	$287	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $190,387
• Equity at exit: $398,450

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $599,617
• Equity at exit: $859,272

Cash invested: $123,841 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,319
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,403/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,964

Max offer price $302,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-538	-5% $-663	+0% $-789	+5% $-914	+10% $-1,039
Rent	-10% $-1,023	-5% $-906	+0% $-789	+5% $-671	+10% $-554
Rate	-1.0pp $-566	-0.5pp $-676	base $-789	+0.5pp $-903	+1.0pp $-1,020

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,572
• Closing costs: $13,269
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Cool Breeze Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,995	$1.90	13d	1	0.63mi
213 Daydream Ave Yulee, FL	3.0	2.5	1876	$2,950	$1.57	25d	1	0.83mi
467 Blue Daze St Yulee, FL	5.0	3.0	2696	$3,450	$1.28	6d	1	0.89mi
504 Blue Daze St Yulee, FL	3.0	2.5	2038	$2,595	$1.27	25d	1	0.89mi
305 Whitby Dr Yulee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1279	$2,815	$2.20	3d	45	1.19mi
76031 Long Pond Loop Yulee, FL	3.0	2.5	2459	$2,500	$1.02	18d	1	1.33mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	22d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2024-02-27
   listed $442,290 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,403 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,403 · $617/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,775
• − Property taxes: −$7,403
• − Insurance: −$2,211
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,847
• − Management: −$2,847
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$12,867
• Taxable loss: −$17,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed $442,290 realMLS

Property tax history

+232.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,403 · +232.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.