513 Fairway Dr · Basye, VA 22810

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1976 0.38 ac lot $161/sqft · 23% below area Est $401k · 23% under $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bryce Mountain Resort, where this 3-story mountain home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and the cozy charm buyers are looking for in a year-round getaway or full-time retreat. Surrounded by trees and set in the Bryce community, the home features a wood-burning fireplace for relaxing after a day on the mountain and a deck for enjoying the peaceful setting. With three levels of living space, there is room to spread out, host guests, or create the ideal weekend escape. Enjoy convenient access to Bryce Resort’s four-season attractions, along with nearby Lake Laura and the surrounding mountain lifestyle.

Key facts

• Deck
• Nearby lake laura
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• DECK
• THREE LEVELS OF LIVING SPACE
• NEARBY LAKE LAURA
• SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $766

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; 800 sq ft finished below-grade area; 1,125 sq ft finished above-grade area
• Exterior features: Community pool; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the first lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on first upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Wood-burning stove; Central air conditioning; Window air conditioning units; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Full basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Basye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#319 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $823 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $204,437 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,360
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -22.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
459 N Aspen Way	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,070 (+8%)	4mo	$550,000	$266	55
1112 Lee Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,144 (+11%)	7mo	$387,500	$181	54
7239 Supinlick Ridge Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,036 (+6%)	2mo	$375,000	$184	51
277 Anderson Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (-9%)	10mo	$385,000	$220	49
122 Forrest St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,706 (-11%)	18mo	$384,999	$226	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-42,720
• Equity at exit: $94,124

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-40,250
• Equity at exit: $116,500

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22810

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,792

Max offer price $224,440

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8148 Supinlick Ridge Rd Unit A Mt Jackson, VA	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,600	$1.27	20d	1	0.86mi
671 Willow Ln Mount Jackson, VA	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,000	$0.94	24d	1	1.26mi
602 Sycamore Rd Mount Jackson, VA	4.0	2.0	1777	$2,849	$1.60	18d	1	1.40mi
32 Cherry St Mount Jackson, VA	4.0	2.0	1248	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $309,900 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $325,000 Active 624-char remark
15. 2009-06-23
    historical
16. 2009-01-21
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$12,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Basye

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #11652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Basye, VA
• Population (ZIP): 505

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.27%
• Current HPI: 197.901
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+93.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-01-21 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS