Churchill (White Pine Pointe) Plan · Florence, KY 41042

$85,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 236 Days on market

$615/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

White Pine Pointe is a family-friendly community with many exciting new amenities and upgrades being planned. New homes will be rolling in soon as well as a playground, new basketball courts, and a new office and clubhouse. Located in a premium spot just minutes from Florence Kentucky, shopping, restaurants and a Kroger store is within walking distance. Florence Kentucky offers world-class services to premium recreational opportunities for residents of all ages. Plans for new homes, a playground, new basketball courts, and a new office and clubhouse. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Pickleball, and Playground

Key facts

• New amenities
• Office and clubhouse
• Walking distance

Tags

• FAMILY FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• NEW AMENITIES
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• OFFICE AND CLUBHOUSE
• WALKING DISTANCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $85,995
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $615

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home (Churchill)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,280 (per listing)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Churchill - White Pine Pointe)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $75,675 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.14%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,770
• Equity at exit: $12,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $27,273
• Equity at exit: $7,435

Cash invested: $24,079 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41042

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$615
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $85,995

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $273	+0% $244	+5% $214	+10% $184
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $171	+0% $244	+5% $316	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $266	base $244	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,499
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 Carnation Ct #12 Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,450	$1.31	11d	1	0.46mi
648 Friars Ln Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	8d	1	0.53mi
648 Friars Ln Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	952	$1,350	$1.42	21d	1	0.53mi
71 Deer Haven Ct Unit RL10322 Florence, KY	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,999	$1.29	8d	1	0.56mi
71 Deer Haven Ct Unit DH6 Florence, KY	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,925	$1.28	24d	1	0.56mi
71 Deer Haven Ct Unit DH65 Florence, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	24d	1	0.56mi
71 Deer Haven Ct Unit DH07 Florence, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	8d	1	0.56mi
550 Mount Zion Rd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,469	$1.53	3d	20	0.94mi
1047 Alpine Ct Independence, KY	3.0	2.0	1035	$2,400	$2.32	24d	1	1.02mi
996 Trellises Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$1,891	$2.06	3d	27	1.30mi
780 Weaver Rd Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1155	$2,300	$1.99	3d	18	1.41mi
9552 Apple Valley Dr Independence, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,456	$1.32	3d	6	1.46mi
3924 Trappers Ct Florence, KY	3.0	1.5	1384	$2,380	$1.72	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $615 · $7,380/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,995 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,995 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,995 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,995 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,995 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,995 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,995 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,995 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,995 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,995 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,995 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,995 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,995 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,995 Active 215 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$7,380
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $2,120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$509
• After-tax cash flow: $2,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

Livability — Florence

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2763

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 99,563 people
• City population: 57,634
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,634
• Household income: $79,712
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1397.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.07%
• Current HPI: 206.3259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B