1 Mill St · Clark Mills, NY 13321

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 1993 0.28 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready ranch style home located at 1 Mill Street in the Town of Kirkland. This property features three good size bedrooms, two full bathrooms and a detached garage. Notable updates include new kitchen cabinets, new countertop and sink, new laminate flooring, new carpet, new bathroom vanity and toilet and new interior paint. The metal roof, furnace and some windows were replaced in 2014. Property is located on the corner of Clinton Street and Mill Street. Schedule your appointment and make your offer today!

Key facts

• New carpet
• Ranch style home
• New bathroom vanity

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOP
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW BATHROOM VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#383 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clinton Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #185 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.40%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,400
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Anthony Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-3%)	8mo	$58,000	$55	55
612 Barbara Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (-4%)	8mo	$46,000	$44	48
1 Waterwheel Cir	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	7mo	$58,000	$59	48
26 Water Wheel Cir	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	20mo	$60,000	$60	41
710 Heloon Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (-4%)	23mo	$56,900	$55	39
85 Millstream Ct	0.52mi	3/1.0	980 (-9%)	21mo	$45,000	$46	39
22 Water Wheel Cir	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-14%)	12mo	$65,000	$70	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $27,551
• Equity at exit: $54,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $85,734
• Equity at exit: $72,163

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13321

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $443	+0% $388	+5% $333	+10% $277
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $313	+0% $388	+5% $462	+10% $537
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $429	base $388	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Cambridge LN Kirkland, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,225	$1.53	44d	4	0.31mi
2 Cambridge Ln Unit 15 Clinton, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,225	$1.53	44d	1	0.33mi
105 Pheasants Run Clinton, NY	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,150	$2.05	44d	1	0.61mi
122 Pheasants Run Kirkland, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	44d	1	0.68mi
135 Pheasants Run Clark Mills, NY	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,350	$2.14	44d	1	0.70mi
130 Pheasants Run Clinton, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,250	$1.88	44d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   price $159,900
3. 2025-11-09
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $4,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clinton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607770
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,439
• Composite: 55.05/100
• National rank: #1290
• State rank: #185 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clark Mills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #6606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clark Mills, NY
• City population: 815
• Population (ZIP): 815

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 11% Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 281.0024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $164,900 CNYIS