578 Channel Way · Needles, CA 92363

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 346 Days on market

Built 1978 1,440 sqft lot $89/sqft · 9% below area Est $141k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully Remodeled & Furnished Pond-View Home Completely gutted and beautifully remodeled in 2021, this stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is being sold fully furnished, making it truly move-in ready. Enjoy peaceful mornings or evenings on the spacious wrap-around deck overlooking a tranquil pond. Wood flooring flows throughout most of the home, complemented by ceiling fans and central A/C. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light. The upgraded kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, upgraded cabinetry, skylights, and ample counter and storage space. A full laundry room with washer/dryer. Outside, enjoy water-wise landscaping, a covered carport, and a storage shed in a peaceful setting in a well-kept community. Located in one of the most desirable 55+ river communities with two private boat launch ramps, beaches, a dock, and more. Just minutes from El Rio Golf Club, Rainbow Beach Restaurant, and the AVI Casino. Low HOA and low taxes (home only). Buyer must be park-approved.

Key facts

• Pond-view home
• Covered carport
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• POND-VIEW HOME
• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WATER-WISE LANDSCAPING
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.1% in Needles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#492 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,677
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: -9.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
587 Beach Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	78
669 Channel Way	0.01mi	3/3.0	1,236 (-14%)	3mo	$130,000	$105	69
1164 Beach Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$440,000	$306	68
1106 Beach Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+3%)	22mo	$325,000	$218	57
1171 Marina Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+9%)	7mo	$535,000	$342	55
1189 Marina Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+8%)	21mo	$375,000	$242	43
1206 Beach Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+12%)	18mo	$950,000	$586	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $23,012
• Equity at exit: $48,043

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $70,352
• Equity at exit: $67,353

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92363

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $271/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $297	+0% $261	+5% $224	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $210	+0% $261	+5% $311	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $293	base $261	+0.5pp $227	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Bazoobuth St Needles, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	14d	1	0.53mi
316 Cibola St Unit Frt Needles, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,300	$1.02	22d	1	0.56mi
412 D St Needles, CA	2.0	1.0	1096	$1,200	$1.09	14d	1	0.79mi
512 E St Needles, CA	3.0	1.0	895	$1,300	$1.45	14d	1	0.87mi
1514 4th St Unit 1514 Needles, CA	3.0	1.0	968	$1,375	$1.42	14d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,000 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $128,000 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,000 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,000 Active 331 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 329 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 328 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 327 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,000 Active 326 DOM
17. 2025-08-31
    price $128,000 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & Furnished Pond-View Home Completely gutted and beautifully remodeled in 2021, this stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is being sold fully furnished, making it truly move-in ready. Enjoy peaceful mornings or evenings on the spacious wrap-around deck overlooking a tranquil pond. Wood flooring flows throughout most of the home, complemented by ceiling fans and central A/C. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light. The upgraded kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, upgraded cabinetry, skylights, and ample counter and storage space. A full laundry room with washer/dryer. Outside, enjoy water-wise landscaping, a covered carport, and a storage shed in a peaceful setting in a well-kept community. Located in one of the most desirable 55+ river communities with two private boat launch ramps, beaches, a dock, and more. Just minutes from El Rio Golf Club, Rainbow Beach Restaurant, and the AVI Casino. Low HOA and low taxes (home only). Buyer must be park-approved.

18. 2025-07-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & Furnished Pond-View Home Completely gutted and beautifully remodeled in 2021, this stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is being sold fully furnished, making it truly move-in ready. Enjoy peaceful mornings or evenings on the spacious wrap-around deck overlooking a tranquil pond. Wood flooring flows throughout most of the home, complemented by ceiling fans and central A/C. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light. The upgraded kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, upgraded cabinetry, skylights, and ample counter and storage space. A full laundry room with washer/dryer. Outside, enjoy water-wise landscaping, a covered carport, and a storage shed in a peaceful setting in a well-kept community. Located in one of the most desirable 55+ river communities with two private boat launch ramps, beaches, a dock, and more. Just minutes from El Rio Golf Club, Rainbow Beach Restaurant, and the AVI Casino. Low HOA and low taxes (home only). Buyer must be park-approved.

19. 2025-07-08
    listed $158,000 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Fully Remodeled & Furnished Pond-View Home Completely gutted and beautifully remodeled in 2021, this stylish 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is being sold fully furnished, making it truly move-in ready. Enjoy peaceful mornings or evenings on the spacious wrap-around deck overlooking a tranquil pond. Wood flooring flows throughout most of the home, complemented by ceiling fans and central A/C. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light. The upgraded kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, upgraded cabinetry, skylights, and ample counter and storage space. A full laundry room with washer/dryer. Outside, enjoy water-wise landscaping, a covered carport, and a storage shed in a peaceful setting in a well-kept community. Located in one of the most desirable 55+ river communities with two private boat launch ramps, beaches, a dock, and more. Just minutes from El Rio Golf Club, Rainbow Beach Restaurant, and the AVI Casino. Low HOA and low taxes (home only). Buyer must be park-approved.

20. 2025-07-07
    listed $158,000 Active
21. 2025-03-17
    historical
22. 2025-01-06
    price $99,999
23. 2024-10-10
    listed $115,000 Active
24. 2024-10-07
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $271 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 258.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥117°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$271
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $1,054
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$253
• After-tax cash flow: $2,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Needles

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #492
• US rank: #16661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Needles, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,392

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Native American 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Current HPI: 279.7931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+11.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $128,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $158,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $158,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $99,999 CRMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-07 Coming Soon — CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $271 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.