Avery Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$294,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,405 sqft · Townhouse · 670 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Modern open design
• Sliding doors
• Comfortable bedrooms

Tags

• MODERN OPEN DESIGN
• SLIDING DOORS
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• TOP-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• COMFORTABLE BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $294,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home — Avery plan; Active listing
• Construction: New construction (inventory type: Plan)
• Exterior features: New construction plan (Avery)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 1405 (living area shown separately)

🏗️ New construction. The $294,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,620.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 670 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 670 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14165 Lilac Sky Ter	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,414 (+1%)	1mo	$295,000	$209	98
14161 Lilac Sky Ter	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,352 (-4%)	0mo	$295,000	$218	93
14144 Crimson Ave	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,431 (+2%)	3mo	$282,500	$197	89
14443 Lilac Sky Ter	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,405 (0%)	3mo	$282,800	$201	88
14374 Lilac Sky Ter	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-4%)	4mo	$265,000	$197	82
14431 Lilac Sky Ter	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-4%)	3mo	$267,000	$198	81
14427 Lilac Sky Ter	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-4%)	3mo	$265,000	$197	81
14435 Lilac Sky Ter	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-4%)	3mo	$275,000	$204	81
14416 Lilac Sky Ter	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,347 (-4%)	4mo	$265,000	$197	81
13816 Messina Loop #104	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$213	44
13810 Messina Loop #204	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+9%)	4mo	$350,000	$229	42
13725 Messina Loop #104	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+9%)	3mo	$350,000	$229	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,619
• Equity at exit: $42,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,781
• Equity at exit: $24,782

Cash invested: $80,254 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,299/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $286,620

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $301	+0% $202	+5% $103	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $93	+0% $202	+5% $311	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $275	base $202	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,655
• Closing costs: $8,599
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14223 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	18d	1	0.03mi
14072 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,290	$1.70	25d	1	0.11mi
4740 Old Blush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1431	$2,300	$1.61	25d	1	0.12mi
14052 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,395	$1.70	18d	1	0.13mi
14051 Crimson Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.15mi
14423 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,200	$1.63	25d	1	0.18mi
14424 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,500	$1.78	5d	1	0.19mi
14428 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$2,300	$1.71	23d	1	0.19mi
14440 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,995	$1.48	21d	1	0.20mi
14448 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1352	$2,300	$1.70	25d	1	0.21mi
14452 Lilac Sky Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,295	$1.63	25d	1	0.21mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	18d	1	0.69mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,900	$1.90	25d	1	0.75mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	0.76mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,400	$2.88	21d	1	0.77mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.77mi
13605 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,450	$2.26	25d	2	0.77mi
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,775	$1.82	18d	1	0.77mi
13711 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,495	$1.63	25d	1	0.77mi
13711 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	18d	1	0.78mi
13703 Messina Loop #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,750	$1.80	25d	1	0.78mi
13823 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,950	$1.93	25d	2	0.79mi
13720 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	0.79mi
13710 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	25d	1	0.81mi
13604 Messina Loop #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$6,000	$3.93	5d	1	0.82mi
12740 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1572	$4,850	$3.09	16d	2	0.92mi
12730 Sorrento Way #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,400	$2.23	25d	1	0.94mi
12730 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	5d	2	0.95mi
12720 Sorrento Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1572	$3,148	$2.00	25d	2	0.96mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	18d	1	0.98mi
4511 Terrazza Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1868	$5,000	$2.68	25d	1	0.98mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	25d	1	1.01mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	25d	1	1.13mi
12749 Coastal Breeze Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$3,595	$2.04	23d	1	1.16mi
12463 Trailhead Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,200	$1.93	25d	1	1.16mi
5037 Skyview Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,900	$1.73	25d	1	1.18mi
12447 Trailhead Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,649	$1.51	5d	1	1.18mi
12335 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,350	$1.40	25d	1	1.20mi
12314 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,350	$1.40	18d	1	1.20mi
12326 Amber Creek Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,300	$1.37	18d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $294,999 Active 670 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,999 Active 667 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,999 Active 666 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,999 Active 665 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,999 Active 664 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,999 Active 662 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,999 Active 661 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,999 Active 659 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,999 Active 658 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,999 Active 657 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,999 Active 656 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,999 Active 652 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,999 Active 651 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,999 Active 650 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,999 Active 649 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,055
• − Property taxes: −$4,299
• − Insurance: −$1,433
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − Depreciation: −$8,338
• Taxable loss: −$2,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $2,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B