205 N Lelia · Kirbyville, TX 75956

$64,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1934 8,276 sqft lot Est $103k · 38% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Formal dining room
• Covered back porches

Tags

• DOUBLE PANED VINYL WINDOWS
• METAL ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCHES
• COVERED BACK PORCHES
• WELL SHADED BACK PORCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kirbyville CISD (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #274 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($442 loan paydown + $791 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.93%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,648
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 E Main St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,066 (-2%)	10mo	$99,900	$94	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $17,109
• Equity at exit: $22,639

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $47,424
• Equity at exit: $30,707

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75956

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $570

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Charlsie Ave Kirbyville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$830	$0.98	43d	1	0.79mi
1410 S Elizabeth Ave Apt 504 Kirbyville, TX	3.0	1.0	768	$950	$1.24	43d	1	0.99mi
1410 S Elizabeth Ave Unit 204 Kirbyville, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$850	$1.11	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

2. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

3. 2026-03-11
   price $64,000 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

4. 2026-03-09
   price $64,000
5. 2026-01-12
   price $69,000
6. 2025-09-15
   listed $79,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

7. 2025-09-15
   listed $69,000 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   This charming older home has great potential for downsizing or starter home. in the heart of Kirbyville & close to all amenities. It's a 2 bed/1 bath & separate dining room sitting on a little under 1/4 acre. Inside laundry rm has plenty of room for freezer & additional storage. The well shaded backyard is a great place for entertaining or just relaxing. Waiting for your personal touches & some needed tlc. The portable ac unit & storage bldg will convey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$837
• − Management: −$837
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $1,958
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$470
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirbyville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4825710
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,141
• Composite: 38.14/100
• National rank: #4269
• State rank: #274 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #20020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirbyville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,085

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 161.736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-08 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $64,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $64,000 BBOR
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $69,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-15 Listed $79,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-15 Listed $69,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,059 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.