1441 Daniel St · Badger, AK 99705

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1983 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a 1-acre lot in North Pole, this property offers space, privacy, and affordable living. The home features an open living area, a functional kitchen with ample counter space, and convenient single-level living. Double-pane windows and insulation help provide year-round comfort, while built-in storage and an exterior shed offer room for tools, equipment, and outdoor gear. The property is equipped with electric power, a private well, and a septic system, providing the essential utilities needed for everyday living. Outside, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for recreation, gardening, pets, or future projects. With ample outdoor space and flexibility, this property presents an

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Built in storage
• Single level living

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• BUILT IN STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential property; Other/see remarks sub-type
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wood heating; Forced air; Wood stove
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Pole Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 347 students, 37% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.02%
• DSCR: 5.90
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $85,897
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.73×
• Total profit: $211,484
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $1,412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,450	-5% $1,431	+0% $1,412	+5% $1,393	+10% $1,374
Rent	-10% $1,233	-5% $1,322	+0% $1,412	+5% $1,502	+10% $1,591
Rate	-1.0pp $1,440	-0.5pp $1,426	base $1,412	+0.5pp $1,398	+1.0pp $1,383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1278 Still Valley Rd #2 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $17,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,100
• After-tax cash flow: $12,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $55,000 GFBR
• 2024-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $94 · -90.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.