2408 Dorothy Ave Unit A · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$145,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured · 112 Days on market

Built 1971 5,663 sqft lot $263/sqft · 12% below area Est $165k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Zoned R-2 (BC) This property holds so much potential. Cute little mobile home holds a little charm quintessential of Key West style. Property includes a storage unit in the backyard. A large deck on the front of the home. Could be a great rental property long term or short term. Or maybe you might want to build two townhomes or a duplex and live in one while you rent out the other. There are 3 adjacent parcels that are listed for sale as well by a separate owner. Total of . 64 acres available for purchase to potentially build 4 sets of townhomes or duplexes.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Zoned r-2
• Storage unit

Tags

• ZONED R-2
• STORAGE UNIT
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $145k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,386
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -12.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,159
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,102
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,095

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$1,550	$1.43	13d	18	0.37mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,399	$1.45	13d	12	0.72mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,526	$1.50	13d	41	0.80mi
8817 Thomas Dr #404 Panama City Beach, FL	—	1.0	489	$1,200	$2.45	21d	1	0.88mi
9850 S Thomas Dr Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$2,750	$3.93	21d	1	1.25mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,355	$1.31	13d	12	1.26mi
9850 S Thomas Dr Unit 1355022P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	602	$1,639	$2.72	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $145,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Zoned R-2 (BC) This property holds so much potential. Cute little mobile home holds a little charm quintessential of Key West style. Property includes a storage unit in the backyard. A large deck on the front of the home. Could be a great rental property long term or short term. Or maybe you might want to build two townhomes or a duplex and live in one while you rent out the other. There are 3 adjacent parcels that are listed for sale as well by a separate owner. Total of . 64 acres available for purchase to potentially build 4 sets of townhomes or duplexes.

19. 2026-02-26
    listed $174,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Zoned R-2 (BC) This property holds so much potential. Cute little mobile home holds a little charm quintessential of Key West style. Property includes a storage unit in the backyard. A large deck on the front of the home. Could be a great rental property long term or short term. Or maybe you might want to build two townhomes or a duplex and live in one while you rent out the other. There are 3 adjacent parcels that are listed for sale as well by a separate owner. Total of . 64 acres available for purchase to potentially build 4 sets of townhomes or duplexes.

20. 2024-11-08
    soldstatus $95,000
21. 2012-02-01
    soldstatus $4,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$670/yr (+$56/mo · 125.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $3,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3436.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $174,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $533 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.