7746 Grundy St St · Warrington, FL 32507

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1979 8,550 sqft lot $144/sqft · 7% below area Est $264k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dynamite home in the popular Bay Meadows community. Super convenient to NAS, Downtown Pensacola, Perdido Key for glorious beaches and Great Local Eateries and Entertainment, not to mention Shopping and Medical facilities. The home is poised on a corner lot with great access into the backyard with a drive gate, side entry garage and plenty of parking for recreation vehicles. The home boasts a backyard fence, open patio and yard building and gutters. The interior does not disappoint either. The home has a spacious, inviting foyer and a massive living room with wood burning fireplace that has french door leading to the open patio great for family BBQ's and events. The living room is flooded with natural light and is adjoining the spacious dining room and kitchen. This 3 bed/ 2 bath home offers ample storage. This one won't last long so call today for your private tour!

Key facts

• Pleasant patio
• Comforting fireplace
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COMFORTING FIREPLACE
• PLEASANT PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• INVITING OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public/community sewer; Electric service available; Natural gas available
• Home design: A-Frame style; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1979
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 90' x 95'; Subdivision: Bay Meadows

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Open living area; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL); Escambia Boys' Base (22 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 58% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,471 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,975
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -7.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3341 Marion Oaks Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$146	85
3770 Weatherstone Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,758 (+3%)	7mo	$289,000	$164	70
2414 Redoubt Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,756 (+3%)	6mo	$275,000	$157	66
2125 Bainbridge Ave	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,750 (+3%)	1mo	$524,985	$300	59
2517 Gulf Breeze Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-6%)	0mo	$261,000	$163	55
8611 Russellcross Blvd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	1mo	$354,900	$197	52
8629 Russellcross Blvd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	2mo	$349,900	$194	51
8626 Russellcross Blvd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	4mo	$358,000	$199	50
8637 Russellcross Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (+6%)	4mo	$338,900	$188	49
2008 Augusta Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (-10%)	8mo	$219,000	$143	46
2520 Gulf Breeze Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-10%)	8mo	$269,900	$176	43
2504 Gulf Breeze Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-10%)	9mo	$255,000	$167	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-30,910
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,128
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,952

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7895 Bay Meadows Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	23d	1	0.25mi
3762 Weatherstone Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	23d	1	0.35mi
8727 Schooner Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,950	$1.52	23d	1	0.85mi
2572 Gulf Breeze Ave Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,200	$1.60	23d	1	0.88mi
727 Bremen Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	21d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $270,000 Active 401-char remark
16. 2026-04-20
    soldstatus $378,000
17. 2020-06-02
    soldstatus $162,000
18. 2020-05-27
    soldstatus $162,000 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Dynamite home in the popular Bay Meadows community. Super convenient to NAS, Downtown Pensacola, Perdido Key for glorious beaches and Great Local Eateries and Entertainment, not to mention Shopping and Medical facilities. The home is poised on a corner lot with great access into the backyard with a drive gate, side entry garage and plenty of parking for recreation vehicles. The home boasts a backyard fence, open patio and yard building and gutters. The interior does not disappoint either. The home has a spacious, inviting foyer and a massive living room with wood burning fireplace that has french door leading to the open patio great for family BBQ's and events. The living room is flooded with natural light and is adjoining the spacious dining room and kitchen. This 3 bed/ 2 bath home offers ample storage. This one won't last long so call today for your private tour!

19. 2020-03-31
    listed $155,000 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Dynamite home in the popular Bay Meadows community. Super convenient to NAS, Downtown Pensacola, Perdido Key for glorious beaches and Great Local Eateries and Entertainment, not to mention Shopping and Medical facilities. The home is poised on a corner lot with great access into the backyard with a drive gate, side entry garage and plenty of parking for recreation vehicles. The home boasts a backyard fence, open patio and yard building and gutters. The interior does not disappoint either. The home has a spacious, inviting foyer and a massive living room with wood burning fireplace that has french door leading to the open patio great for family BBQ's and events. The living room is flooded with natural light and is adjoining the spacious dining room and kitchen. This 3 bed/ 2 bath home offers ample storage. This one won't last long so call today for your private tour!

20. 2018-01-24
    soldstatus $130,000
21. 2018-01-16
    soldstatus $130,000
22. 2017-12-01
    listed $139,900
23. 2007-02-16
    soldstatus $120,500
24. 2007-02-07
    soldstatus $120,500
25. 2006-11-07
    listed $139,500
26. 2006-11-07
    listed $119,500
27. 1994-04-09
    soldstatus $91,000
28. 1979-06-01
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$174/yr (+$15/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$1,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $2,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+329.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $245,000 ECAR
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $260,000 ECAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $270,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $378,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-27 Sold (MLS) $162,000 PARMLS
• 2020-03-31 Listed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2018-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-16 Sold (MLS) $130,000 PARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Listed $139,900 PARMLS
• 2007-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $120,500 Public Records
• 2007-02-07 Sold (MLS) $120,500 PARMLS
• 2006-11-07 Listed $119,500 PARMLS
• 2006-11-07 Listed $139,500 ECAR
• 1994-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1979-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,859 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.