4610 Lincoln Ave · Groves, TX 77619

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1978 Est $112k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and clean! 2/1/3 in popular area of Groves. Owner has spruced it up over the past several months. Freshly painted hardiplank siding, new flooring in living room and bedrooms, inside a/c about 1 year old. The garage is 2-deep on one side. Large concrete patio, fenced yard, small storage building. The lot is larger than average size.

Key facts

• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-370/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Neches-Groves ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,242 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3701 Doyle Ave Ave	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	920 (+6%)	18mo	$120,000	$130	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,374
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-24,278
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77619

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,436/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $139,555

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5431 Marion Ave Groves, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.63mi
5989 32nd St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	13d	1	0.90mi
3431 Canal Ave Unit 1 Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,000	$1.05	13d	1	1.03mi
6110 Willis St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.31mi
2628 4th Ave Groves, TX	3.0	1.0	952	$1,295	$1.36	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-10
   remarks 339-char remark
2. 2026-06-10
   listed $145,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,436 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,436 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,436
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Neches-Groves ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835430
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,661
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4152
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groves

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groves, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 16,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,976
• Household income: $73,710
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 20% Vietnamese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.42%
• Current HPI: 183.1358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-22 Sold (MLS) — PNPANBOR
• 2019-07-11 Listed $94,900 PNPANBOR
• 2007-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,436 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.