103 Kensington Dr · Hattiesburg, MS 39402

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1979 $104/sqft · 14% below area Est $220k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This location is perfect for anyone wanting the lifestyle that allows you to walk or ride their bike to Starbucks, well established restaurants, new restaurants and bar in the new midtown development, or to USM. This home was updated a few years ago and the seller is giving an allowance for new flooring in master bedroom. Value packed home that is closer to South 40th on Kensington has three bedrooms, 2 baths, formal dining room, two car garage, deck, and a nice fenced in back yard. Great home for an owner or investor because this area is a great one!

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hattiesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in MS, #2,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment F.
• Hattiesburg Public School District (urban): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #81 of 130 in MS (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 40% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,157 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,897
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -13.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,646
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,322
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39402

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,807/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $188	+0% $134	+5% $80	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $66	+0% $134	+5% $202	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $182	base $134	+0.5pp $85	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Foxgate Ave Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,610	$1.59	21d	30	0.30mi
407 Lemoyne Ave Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,675	$1.08	44d	1	0.33mi
137 Huntington Dr Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	21d	1	0.92mi
29 Park Pl Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1231	$2,187	$1.78	21d	15	1.12mi
4124 W 4th St Hattiesburg, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,050	$0.78	21d	1	1.24mi
307 S 23rd Ave Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $190,000 Active 557-char remark
2. 2023-02-23
   soldstatus 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   This location is perfect for anyone wanting the lifestyle that allows you to walk or ride their bike to Starbucks, well established restaurants, new restaurants and bar in the new midtown development, or to USM. This home was updated a few years ago and the seller is giving an allowance for new flooring in master bedroom. Value packed home that is closer to South 40th on Kensington has three bedrooms, 2 baths, formal dining room, two car garage, deck, and a nice fenced in back yard. Great home for an owner or investor because this area is a great one!

3. 2018-07-26
   listed $135,500 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   This location is perfect for anyone wanting the lifestyle that allows you to walk or ride their bike to Starbucks, well established restaurants, new restaurants and bar in the new midtown development, or to USM. This home was updated a few years ago and the seller is giving an allowance for new flooring in master bedroom. Value packed home that is closer to South 40th on Kensington has three bedrooms, 2 baths, formal dining room, two car garage, deck, and a nice fenced in back yard. Great home for an owner or investor because this area is a great one!

4. 2014-08-05
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Renovated, vacant, and move-in ready! New flooring, new appliances, freshly painted, new deck, fenced back yard, and a big brick, wood-burning fireplace. Exceptional value and easy to show! Kensington Woods has recently extablished a Homeowner's Association with good leadership and plans for improving quality of life in the neighborhood. HOA dues are $25 per year.

5. 2014-01-13
   listed $127,500

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Renovated, vacant, and move-in ready! New flooring, new appliances, freshly painted, new deck, fenced back yard, and a big brick, wood-burning fireplace. Exceptional value and easy to show! Kensington Woods has recently extablished a Homeowner's Association with good leadership and plans for improving quality of life in the neighborhood. HOA dues are $25 per year.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,807 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,807 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,807
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $1,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hattiesburg Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2801800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $28,058
• Composite: 20.38/100
• National rank: #8595
• State rank: #81 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hattiesburg

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2046

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hattiesburg, MS
• County: Lamar County · 44,620 people
• City population: 87,151
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 44,620
• Household income: $75,220
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.41%
• Current HPI: 163.5142
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2018-07-26 Listed $135,500 HAAR
• 2014-08-05 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2014-01-13 Listed $127,500 HAAR

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,807 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.