2355 Camino Shangrila · Tubac, AZ 85646

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1990 0.84 ac lot $209/sqft · 24% below area Est $425k · 24% under $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on an expansive .84-acre lot in Tubac Valley Villas, this three-bedroom, two-bath home provides plenty of room to grow and the opportunity to enhance an established Tubac residence with your own design vision. Offering a functional layout, with attached double-bay garage and generous exterior spaces, you'll find a lot to love here. Courtyard-enclosed outdoor living spaces feature covered and open hardscapes for grilling and entertaining. Interior features include tile flooring throughout, kiva-style fireplace and primary suite with walk-in closet and large en-suite bath. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with utility sink. Experience a unique blend of privacy, proximity and potential.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Walk-in closet
• Tile flooring

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• TILE FLOORING
• KIVA-STYLE FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-461 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $325k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.80%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,284
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -23.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Ray Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-11%)	23mo	$384,750	$278	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $50,111
• Equity at exit: $92,071

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $163,270
• Equity at exit: $108,855

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,517/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$810
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $325,000 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Located on an expansive .84-acre lot in Tubac Valley Villas, this three-bedroom, two-bath home provides plenty of room to grow and the opportunity to enhance an established Tubac residence with your own design vision. Offering a functional layout, with attached double-bay garage and generous exterior spaces, you'll find a lot to love here. Courtyard-enclosed outdoor living spaces feature covered and open hardscapes for grilling and entertaining. Interior features include tile flooring throughout, kiva-style fireplace and primary suite with walk-in closet and large en-suite bath. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with utility sink. Experience a unique blend of privacy, proximity and potential.

2. 2026-04-29
   status Active 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Located on an expansive .84-acre lot in Tubac Valley Villas, this three-bedroom, two-bath home provides plenty of room to grow and the opportunity to enhance an established Tubac residence with your own design vision. Offering a functional layout, with attached double-bay garage and generous exterior spaces, you'll find a lot to love here. Courtyard-enclosed outdoor living spaces feature covered and open hardscapes for grilling and entertaining. Interior features include tile flooring throughout, kiva-style fireplace and primary suite with walk-in closet and large en-suite bath. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with utility sink. Experience a unique blend of privacy, proximity and potential.

3. 2026-04-02
   historical Active Contingent 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Located on an expansive .84-acre lot in Tubac Valley Villas, this three-bedroom, two-bath home provides plenty of room to grow and the opportunity to enhance an established Tubac residence with your own design vision. Offering a functional layout, with attached double-bay garage and generous exterior spaces, you'll find a lot to love here. Courtyard-enclosed outdoor living spaces feature covered and open hardscapes for grilling and entertaining. Interior features include tile flooring throughout, kiva-style fireplace and primary suite with walk-in closet and large en-suite bath. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with utility sink. Experience a unique blend of privacy, proximity and potential.

4. 2025-12-18
   listed $368,000 Active 717-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Located on an expansive .84-acre lot in Tubac Valley Villas, this three-bedroom, two-bath home provides plenty of room to grow and the opportunity to enhance an established Tubac residence with your own design vision. Offering a functional layout, with attached double-bay garage and generous exterior spaces, you'll find a lot to love here. Courtyard-enclosed outdoor living spaces feature covered and open hardscapes for grilling and entertaining. Interior features include tile flooring throughout, kiva-style fireplace and primary suite with walk-in closet and large en-suite bath. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with utility sink. Experience a unique blend of privacy, proximity and potential.

5. 2004-05-03
   soldstatus $195,000
6. 2000-08-11
   soldstatus $127,000
7. 2000-06-21
   soldstatus $135,500
8. 1997-10-22
   soldstatus $125,500
9. 1993-06-29
   soldstatus $109,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,517 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,517
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,702
• − Management: −$3,702
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $6,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,621
• After-tax cash flow: $10,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+196.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-18 Listed $368,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
• 1997-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records
• 1993-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $109,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,517 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.