31 Allison Ave · Newburgh, NY 12550

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1967 6,600 sqft lot Est $372k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 31 Allison Avenue in Newburgh, NY, a solid 5-bedroom, 2-bath raised ranch with plenty of space, great flow, and a big backyard to match. When you walk in, a short staircase takes you up to the main level, where you’ll find three bedrooms, a full bath, a bright living room with large windows, and a wraparound layout that connects smoothly to the kitchen. The natural light and open feel make this floor the heart of the home. Downstairs is fully finished and adds even more versatility, featuring a spacious second living area, two additional rooms, another full bathroom, a laundry area with a washer/dryer, plus access to the garage. Outside, the backyard offers plenty of room t

Key facts

• Big backyard
• Laundry area
• Wraparound layout

Tags

• BIG BACKYARD
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• WRAPAROUND LAYOUT
• FULLY FINISHED
• SPACIOUS SECOND LIVING AREA
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-249/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Middle School (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 878 students, 58% FRL); Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $225k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,334 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Valley Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,488 (0%)	9mo	$399,000	$268	87
178 Fullerton Ave	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,468 (-1%)	1mo	$240,000	$163	83
77 Prospect St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-3%)	2mo	$387,500	$269	77
112 Prospect St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,519 (+2%)	12mo	$379,900	$250	74
17 Roosevelt Pl	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,509 (+1%)	10mo	$405,000	$268	73
75 Prospect St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$245	73
190 Fullerton Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-6%)	12mo	$190,000	$137	71
22 Fullerton Ave	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,472 (-1%)	6mo	$365,000	$248	69
190 Gidney Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,536 (+3%)	9mo	$285,000	$186	67
65 West St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,310 (-12%)	7mo	$347,000	$265	54
19 Gardner	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-13%)	12mo	$235,000	$181	36
212 North St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,275 (-14%)	7mo	$360,000	$282	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,212
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-60,536
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,224/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,480

Max offer price $221,334

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $43	+0% $-21	+5% $-84	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-118	+0% $-21	+5% $76	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $36	base $-21	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
171 West St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1299	$2,800	$2.16	24d	1	0.18mi
9 Arlington Pl Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	14d	1	0.24mi
457 1st St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1680	$2,950	$1.76	44d	1	0.26mi
259 1st St Newburgh, NY	3.0	2.0	883	$2,000	$2.27	44d	1	0.56mi
268 Carpenter Ave Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	3.0	2.0	950	$2,600	$2.74	24d	1	0.56mi
20 Pierces Rd Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,900	$1.77	24d	1	0.59mi
160 N Miller St #1 Newburgh, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	44d	1	0.67mi
193 South St Unit 2 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,415	$2.01	14d	1	0.68mi
177 W Parmenter St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.73mi
52 S Miller St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	889	$1,900	$2.14	44d	1	0.75mi
42 Hasbrouck St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1008	$2,550	$2.53	44d	1	0.80mi
28 Hasbrouck St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,700	$2.27	44d	1	0.82mi
57 Lander St Unit B Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,900	$1.73	44d	1	0.82mi
51 Lander St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.83mi
276 Temple Hill Rd #2215 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	1026	$2,100	$2.05	24d	1	0.89mi
62 Poplar St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1272	$3,000	$2.36	24d	1	0.92mi
167 Liberty St Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	44d	1	0.93mi
317 Grand St Unit 1-1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	14d	1	0.94mi
196 Carson Ave Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	1188	$2,200	$1.85	44d	1	0.96mi
4 Grand St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	24d	1	1.07mi
4 Grand St Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$3,925	$2.52	24d	1	1.07mi
22 Benkard Ave Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,750	$1.63	44d	1	1.10mi
44 Johnes St Unit 108-J Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	909	$1,950	$2.15	14d	1	1.16mi
22 Overlook Pl Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	1013	$2,000	$1.97	21d	1	1.28mi
81 Liberty Street Washington Hts Unit 2 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1362	$2,950	$2.17	44d	1	1.34mi
33 Bay View Ter Unit 1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	14d	1	1.39mi
109 Myrtle Ave New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$2,200	$2.04	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-27
   price $225,000
3. 2026-01-03
   listed $289,000 Active
4. 2025-12-01
   status Active
5. 2025-11-21
   price $289,000
6. 2025-11-13
   price $189,000
7. 2025-10-20
   listed $279,000 Active
8. 2001-11-16
   soldstatus $145,000
9. 1996-05-03
   soldstatus $105,000
10. 1967-03-01
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$8,224
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$904
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+971.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1967-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,224 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.