15244 Old Chisolm Trl · Eustis, FL 32726

$124,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1977 6,521 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Buy! Canal isgreat. ! Cathedral ceilings, open island kitchen. Appliance real nice, dishwasher not warranted! A LITTLE TLC!

Key facts

• 6,521 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.5% in Eustis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#309 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.19%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,060
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15415 Apache Pass	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	6mo	$49,990	$37	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,721
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $60,963
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32726

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $124,999

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1651 N Country Rd Eustis, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,424	$1.81	23d	1	0.52mi
993 Foote St Eustis, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	0.97mi
1799 N County Road 19A Eustis, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	1d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-01-14
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-15
   price $124,999
3. 2024-08-13
   listed $165,000 Active
4. 2005-04-20
   soldstatus $47,900
5. 2005-04-15
   soldstatus $47,900 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Great Buy! Canal isgreat. ! Cathedral ceilings, open island kitchen. Appliance real nice, dishwasher not warranted! A LITTLE TLC!

6. 2002-05-23
   listed $47,900 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   Great Buy! Canal isgreat. ! Cathedral ceilings, open island kitchen. Appliance real nice, dishwasher not warranted! A LITTLE TLC!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $5,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eustis

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #5286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 24,715
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,715
• Household income: $63,152
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.12%
• Current HPI: 325.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+161.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $124,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-13 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-15 Sold (MLS) $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-23 Listed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.