309 Dorsey Ave · Carlisle, KY 40311

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1951 7,840 sqft lot $34/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.74%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,030
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -70.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Dorsey Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+9%)	18mo	$200,000	$138	60
508 E Main St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+13%)	10mo	$170,000	$112	57
100 Robin Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,325 (-1%)	13mo	$168,000	$127	56
215 Dorsey Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+12%)	23mo	$62,000	$42	55
101 Mockingbird Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-8%)	2mo	$202,800	$165	55
248 Moorefield Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-6%)	20mo	$20,000	$16	48
139 Oriole St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-9%)	20mo	$160,000	$132	42
130 Catherine St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,476 (+11%)	6mo	$181,500	$123	41
506 North Locust St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	23mo	$132,000	$109	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $66,992
• Equity at exit: $40,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.4%
• Equity multiple: 14.03×
• Total profit: $163,841
• Equity at exit: $87,231

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $400/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $364

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $681	+0% $668	+5% $655	+10% $642
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $620	+0% $668	+5% $716	+10% $763
Rate	-1.0pp $690	-0.5pp $679	base $668	+0.5pp $656	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

2. 2026-04-03
   status Active 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

3. 2026-04-01
   historical 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

4. 2026-02-27
   price $44,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

5. 2026-02-11
   price $47,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

6. 2026-01-14
   price $49,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

7. 2025-12-29
   price $53,000 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

8. 2025-12-10
   price $58,000 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

9. 2025-10-30
   price $59,000 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

10. 2025-09-24
    listed $69,000 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    With some TLC, you could live here cheaper than paying rent. Three bedrooms, 1 bath, living room, and kitchen. Covered front porch and convenient location. Schedule your showing today.

11. 2016-09-10
    soldstatus $37,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$400
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,858
• After-tax cash flow: $6,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlisle, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+21.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $44,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $47,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $49,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $53,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $58,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $59,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $69,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $37,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.