104 Lunker Lodge Rd · Welaka, FL 32139

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2004 7,840 sqft lot Est $110k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large living area
• Convenient access

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Above-ground private pool; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.0% in Welaka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#878 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crescent City Jr-Sr High School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,005 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $140k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,684 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,824
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Lisa Ter	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,107 (+5%)	9mo	$177,500	$160	64
123 Kolski Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+1%)	9mo	$93,000	$87	60
111 Browns Fish Camp Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	24mo	$120,000	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $26,461
• Equity at exit: $80,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $85,372
• Equity at exit: $139,287

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32139

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,670/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $121,503

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-65	+0% $-105	+5% $-144	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-146	+0% $-105	+5% $-63	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-69	base $-105	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $140,000
16. 2026-04-03
    price $154,000
17. 2026-02-03
    listed $164,000 Active
18. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $68,000
19. 2018-09-28
    soldstatus $68,000 Sold 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

20. 2018-08-08
    status Pending 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

21. 2018-07-19
    status Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

22. 2018-07-05
    status Pending 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

23. 2018-03-28
    price $67,000 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

24. 2017-11-05
    listed $68,900 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Access to the St. Johns River & Lake George. Three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home with roof replaced 10-27-2017 & carpet in the living room and master bedroom also. Open floor plan, double lot. Great weekend get a way for enjoying the River Life!

25. 2008-12-01
    historical 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Almost new double wide close to the St. Johns River. Walk down to the river and enjoy the view or get in some great fishing. This almost new home is ready for low maintenance Florida living. River Access included, owner.

26. 2008-05-23
    listed $79,900 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Almost new double wide close to the St. Johns River. Walk down to the river and enjoy the view or get in some great fishing. This almost new home is ready for low maintenance Florida living. River Access included, owner.

27. 1995-02-28
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,670
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $-361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Welaka

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #23339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,200
• Population (ZIP): 897

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Current HPI: 291.5006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+723.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $154,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $164,000 realMLS
• 2018-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-28 Sold (MLS) $68,000 realMLS
• 2018-08-08 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-07-19 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-07-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-28 Price Changed $67,000 realMLS
• 2017-11-05 Listed $68,900 realMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-05-23 Listed $79,900 realMLS
• 1995-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,670 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.