14205 Jay St · Dyer, IN 46311

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1956 0.46 ac lot $195/sqft · 28% below area Est $251k · 28% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home!! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house is on a spacious lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in Dyer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#27 in IN, #2,273 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Central High School (math 46% / reading 74%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,069 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,515
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -28.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7892 Larry St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-3%)	4mo	$230,000	$256	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,592
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-559
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46311

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $394/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,415

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $234	+0% $183	+5% $132	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $118	+0% $183	+5% $248	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $228	base $183	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    price $180,000 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Welcome Home!! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house is on a spacious lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

16. 2025-09-18
    listed $209,999 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Welcome Home!! This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house is on a spacious lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $394 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 144.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$394
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $2,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $75,957
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #41 of 301 in IN

Livability — Dyer

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #2273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,405

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.39%
• Current HPI: 212.2066
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $180,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $209,999 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $394 · +27.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.