574 Grandview Rd · Hot Springs, VA 24445

$95,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1882 6.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Lots of potential to restore this 1882 log home. Property is located very close to the Homestead Resort. Public sewer is located across the street from this property according to the County.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Log home
• 6.28 acre lot

Tags

• LOG HOME
• CLOSE TO HOMESTEAD RESORT
• PUBLIC SEWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#527 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bath County Public School District (rural): math 59% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #50 of 131 in VA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Bath County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($664 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bath County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,510 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.10%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $22,985
• Equity at exit: $41,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $65,533
• Equity at exit: $62,778

Cash invested: $26,866 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24445

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $95,950

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $231	+0% $204	+5% $176	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $164	+0% $204	+5% $243	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $228	base $204	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,988
• Closing costs: $2,878
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $95,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,375
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$969
• − Management: −$969
• − Depreciation: −$2,791
• Taxable income: $921
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$221
• After-tax cash flow: $2,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bath County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100330
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,995
• Composite: 53.25/100
• National rank: #1496
• State rank: #50 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #24141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,395

Population outlook (Bath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,319 people
• By 2030: 4,198 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 3,897 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 3,719 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 3,404 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 4,049 · -6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Bath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.8% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+42.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Current HPI: 146.3707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-02-10 Listed $95,950 MLSRV

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.