2420 E 2nd Plz · Panama City, FL 32401

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $283k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fix-and-flip plus a built-in development play, all on one parcel. The 1,728 sq ft brick home is renovation-ready with a $250K+ ARV, and the lot can be split into up to 3 additional buildable lots & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; worth $30K & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; $45K each as-is, or build spec homes to resell for $200K & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; $300K each. The spacious lots have had the majority of them cleared and they are surrounded with beautiful mature trees. High and dry in Flood Zone X with plenty of fill dirt already on site, so no mandatory flood insurance and easy financing. Flip it, sell off the extra lots to cut your basis, or develop the whole thi

Key facts

• Buildable lots
• Renovation ready
• Mature trees

Tags

• RENOVATION READY
• BUILDABLE LOTS
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1973
• Construction: 1,728 living area (reported)
• Exterior features: Located in the Millville Holmes subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 261 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.50%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Sherman Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-7%)	1mo	$235,000	$146	71
216 Elm Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (-2%)	15mo	$270,000	$159	65
226 N James Ave	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,764 (+2%)	15mo	$305,000	$173	61
105 N Marie Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-3%)	5mo	$275,000	$164	53
601 College Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (+6%)	9mo	$200,000	$109	53
1910 Tyndall Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,869 (+8%)	14mo	$295,000	$158	51
147 Kraft Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+8%)	16mo	$215,000	$115	51
1705 Tyndall Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,620 (-6%)	13mo	$505,000	$312	44
1905 Tyndall Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-10%)	13mo	$589,000	$378	44
121 N Cove Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,897 (+10%)	9mo	$378,500	$200	42
1902 Tyndall Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+15%)	7mo	$265,000	$134	39
105 N Cove Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,935 (+12%)	13mo	$404,000	$209	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,055
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $78
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,223/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $397	+0% $347	+5% $298	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $271	+0% $347	+5% $423	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $392	base $347	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 N Gray Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1953	$1,650	$0.84	22d	1	0.17mi
300 Mercedes Ave Unit 1523335P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,807	$3.19	22d	1	1.00mi
329 N Palo Alto Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	14d	1	1.17mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,500	$1.58	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    remarks 663-char remark
16. 2026-06-02
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,223 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,223 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,223
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,947
• Household income: $52,523
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.12%
• Current HPI: 290.3312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,223 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.