Bridgeport Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$303,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · MultiFamily · 557 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 557 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $303,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: Bridgeport; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Address: 12581 Oak Hill Way, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,534

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-230/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 557 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,497 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 557 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-58,163
• Equity at exit: $45,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-81,902
• Equity at exit: $26,283

Cash invested: $85,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,560/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,659

Max offer price $301,215

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,998
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	0.06mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	23d	1	0.21mi
8123 Trimbelle Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,850	$1.66	16d	1	0.90mi
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	0.92mi
8423 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,400	$1.32	23d	1	1.05mi
8443 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,000	$0.92	23d	1	1.07mi
7148 Boggy Creek Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,929	$1.52	3d	1	1.09mi
8522 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,000	$1.10	23d	1	1.15mi
8544 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,300	$1.26	11d	1	1.17mi
11522 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,300	$1.45	23d	1	1.30mi
11523 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,950	$1.23	3d	1	1.32mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	23d	1	1.32mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	3d	1	1.35mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $303,990 Active 557 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $303,990 Active 556 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $303,990 Active 555 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $303,990 Active 554 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $303,990 Active 552 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $303,990 Active 551 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $303,990 Active 549 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $303,990 Active 548 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,990 Active 547 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $303,990 Active 546 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 542 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,990 Active 541 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,990 Active 540 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $303,990 Active 539 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,028
• − Property taxes: −$4,560
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$8,843
• Taxable loss: −$5,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B