5449 Cypress Ln · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $73k · at est. $755/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Modular Home. Vaulted ceilings throughout the living spaces. Family Room with ceiling fan, large picture window, and vinyl wood flooring. Open Kitchen concept with new appliances, white cabinets, new vinyl flooring, lots of counter space, and skylights. Dining area with new sliders and vinyl wood flooring. 3 generous Bedrooms with large closets and ceiling fans. 2 spacious Baths with skylights, Master includes soaker tub. Adorable screened porch perfect for hot, sunny days. Insulated and heated garage. Main living space of the home has been updated with drywall and freshly painted. Roof on house and garage 2020. New AC unit. Fenced yard and nicely landscaped. This is a 55 and older community.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large garage
• Large kitchen

Tags

• 3 SEASON SCREENED BACK PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SS APPLIANCES
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE GARAGE
• WHIRLPOOL TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $755

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Olson Park Elem School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #577 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 343 students, 0% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #488 of 665 statewide, top 74%, 957 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5447 Autumnash Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	7mo	$73,000	$54	92
5396 Heartwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	7mo	$23,500	$17	87
5411 Autumnash Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	4mo	$87,000	$60	81
5476 Ebonywood Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	1mo	$66,500	$46	79
5381 Cypress Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	11mo	$84,000	$58	76
8413 Tamarack Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	19mo	$63,000	$47	74
5492 Heartwood Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	9mo	$50,000	$34	74
8581 Springwood Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	6mo	$77,400	$53	73
5370 Irving Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	14mo	$93,000	$64	72
5463 Ebonywood	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+3%)	23mo	$78,000	$56	69
5437 Cypress Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	22mo	$97,000	$67	68
5367 Autumnash Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	21mo	$65,000	$45	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-1,944
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $11,750
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$755
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $164	+0% $140	+5% $115	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $71	+0% $140	+5% $209	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $157	base $140	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	14d	2	1.06mi
5515 Tall Pines Pkwy Unit 1 Roscoe, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	14d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $755 · $9,060/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $69,900
19. 2026-04-28
    price $74,900
20. 2026-03-31
    status Active
21. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
22. 2026-03-13
    listed $77,900 Active
23. 2022-11-22
    historical
24. 2022-10-31
    listed Active
25. 2021-07-29
    soldstatus $70,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Spacious Modular Home. Vaulted ceilings throughout the living spaces. Family Room with ceiling fan, large picture window, and vinyl wood flooring. Open Kitchen concept with new appliances, white cabinets, new vinyl flooring, lots of counter space, and skylights. Dining area with new sliders and vinyl wood flooring. 3 generous Bedrooms with large closets and ceiling fans. 2 spacious Baths with skylights, Master includes soaker tub. Adorable screened porch perfect for hot, sunny days. Insulated and heated garage. Main living space of the home has been updated with drywall and freshly painted. Roof on house and garage 2020. New AC unit. Fenced yard and nicely landscaped. This is a 55 and older community.

26. 2021-06-08
    listed $63,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Spacious Modular Home. Vaulted ceilings throughout the living spaces. Family Room with ceiling fan, large picture window, and vinyl wood flooring. Open Kitchen concept with new appliances, white cabinets, new vinyl flooring, lots of counter space, and skylights. Dining area with new sliders and vinyl wood flooring. 3 generous Bedrooms with large closets and ceiling fans. 2 spacious Baths with skylights, Master includes soaker tub. Adorable screened porch perfect for hot, sunny days. Insulated and heated garage. Main living space of the home has been updated with drywall and freshly painted. Roof on house and garage 2020. New AC unit. Fenced yard and nicely landscaped. This is a 55 and older community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − HOA: −$9,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $1,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+11.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $69,900 NWIAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $74,900 NWIAR
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-03-26 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $77,900 NWIAR
• 2022-11-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 NWIAR
• 2021-06-08 Listed $63,000 NWIAR