Plan 1242 Plan · Arcola, TX 77583

$227,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 706 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Eat-in kitchen * Storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Stainless steel appliances * Gas range * Smart thermostat * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Swimming pool * Playground * Close to golf courses * Pond * Clubhouse

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 705 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

🏗️ New construction. The $227,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,257.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Arcola — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1917 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 706 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 706 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,257
• List price: $227,995
• Delta: -15.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1519 Valley Creek Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,242 (0%)	1mo	$242,995	$196	98
6807 Alamitos Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+12%)	7mo	$239,000	$171	57
711 Alpine Falls Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+4%)	4mo	$250,000	$193	56
7923 Suffolk Valley Ln	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+4%)	2mo	$244,990	$189	56
7834 Golden Rubia Ln	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+4%)	4mo	$250,000	$193	54
7726 Golden Rubia Ln	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+4%)	7mo	$245,000	$189	52
8038 Molasses Way	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+5%)	12mo	$245,000	$188	47
706 Zinnia Ct	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+8%)	7mo	$234,999	$176	46
1103 Cattle Chute Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+13%)	1mo	$249,499	$177	45
1427 Capitola Ln	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	1mo	$244,995	$173	41
1111 Santee Ct	0.86mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (+12%)	13mo	$279,000	$200	29
1127 Santee Ct	0.89mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,448 (+17%)	12mo	$269,888	$186	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-59,332
• Equity at exit: $39,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-86,018
• Equity at exit: $23,194

Cash invested: $75,112 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,500 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +20.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1917
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,024/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $244,340

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-73	+0% $-165	+5% $-258	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-250	+0% $-165	+5% $-81	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-97	base $-165	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,064
• Closing costs: $8,048
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,819	$1.32	43d	1	1.03mi
939 1 Oak Chase Rd Unit A Rosharon, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$1,100	$1.17	1d	1	1.20mi
8318 Oakleaf Meadow Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,760	$1.28	35d	1	1.34mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	10d	1	1.35mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	163d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $227,995 Active 706 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $227,995 Active 705 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $227,995 Active 704 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $227,995 Active 703 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $227,995 Active 702 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $227,995 Active 700 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $227,995 Active 699 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $227,995 Active 698 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $227,995 Active 697 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $227,995 Active 696 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $227,995 Active 695 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $227,995 Active 694 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $227,995 Active 693 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $227,995 Active 692 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $227,995 Active 691 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $227,995 Active 690 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $227,995 Active 689 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $227,995 Active 688 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $227,995 Active 687 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $227,995 Active 686 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $227,995 Active 685 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $227,995 Active 684 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $227,995 Active 683 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $227,995 Active 682 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $227,995 Active 681 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $227,995 Active 680 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $227,995 Active 679 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $227,995 Active 678 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $227,995 Active 677 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $227,995 Active 676 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $227,995 Active 675 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $227,995 Active 674 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $227,995 Active 673 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $227,995 Active 672 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $227,995 Active 671 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $227,995 Active 670 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $227,995 Active 669 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $227,995 Active 668 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $227,995 Active 667 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $227,995 Active 666 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $227,995 Active 665 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $227,995 Active 664 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $227,995 Active 663 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $227,995 Active 662 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $227,995 Active 661 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $227,995 Active 660 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $227,995 Active 659 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $227,995 Active 658 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $227,995 Active 657 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $227,995 Active 656 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,027
• − Property taxes: −$4,024
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$7,804
• Taxable loss: −$6,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,596
• After-tax cash flow: $-387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Arcola, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting and energy-efficient windows that can enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace low-E windows with newer, more energy-efficient models — Modern windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart thermostats and other devices can increase home value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $220,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $218,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $228,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $230,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $227,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $225,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $221,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $219,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $214,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $213,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $223,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $233,995 Zillow