11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #78 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$64,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $89/sqft · at area comps Est $66k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Rose Garden, a welcoming 55+ active adult community with plenty of resort style amenities. This charming home offers an easy & low-maintenance lifestyle. Inside you'll find a light and bright kitchen with eat-in dining area and abundant cabinet space. Fresh paint & laminate flooring through give the home a clean & modern feel. The living area flows nicely into the dining space creating an inviting environment for relaxing or entertainment. Step outside to a covered front porch ideal for entertaining, morning coffee or reading. Covered parking provides year-round shade & convenience.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Eat-in dining area
• Covered parking

Tags

• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• LIGHT AND BRIGHT KITCHEN
• EAT-IN DINING AREA
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $560 of equity ($446 loan paydown + $114 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,630 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.99%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,448
• List price: $64,500
• Delta: -2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #350	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	23mo	$35,000	$45	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $31,307
• Equity at exit: $19,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $68,713
• Equity at exit: $23,663

Cash invested: $18,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$338
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $968/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $64,500

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $594	+0% $572	+5% $549	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $470	-5% $521	+0% $572	+5% $623	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $588	base $572	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,125
• Closing costs: $1,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$1,025	$1.62	25d	4	0.79mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$962	$1.52	3d	3	0.79mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	44d	4	0.79mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	18d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,165	$2.05	2d	5	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,175	$2.07	6d	4	0.92mi
12221 W Bell Rd #175 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,198	$2.14	44d	1	0.93mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	2d	1	1.35mi
12717 W Amy Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	4.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	44d	1	1.44mi
12717 W Amy Dr Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	3.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	44d	1	1.44mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,500 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,500 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,500 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $64,500 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,500 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,500 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,500 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,500 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $65,000 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Welcome to Rose Garden, a welcoming 55+ active adult community with plenty of resort style amenities. This charming home offers an easy & low-maintenance lifestyle. Inside you'll find a light and bright kitchen with eat-in dining area and abundant cabinet space. Fresh paint & laminate flooring through give the home a clean & modern feel. The living area flows nicely into the dining space creating an inviting environment for relaxing or entertainment. Step outside to a covered front porch ideal for entertaining, morning coffee or reading. Covered parking provides year-round shade & convenience.

15. 2026-04-14
    listed $70,000 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Welcome to Rose Garden, a welcoming 55+ active adult community with plenty of resort style amenities. This charming home offers an easy & low-maintenance lifestyle. Inside you'll find a light and bright kitchen with eat-in dining area and abundant cabinet space. Fresh paint & laminate flooring through give the home a clean & modern feel. The living area flows nicely into the dining space creating an inviting environment for relaxing or entertainment. Step outside to a covered front porch ideal for entertaining, morning coffee or reading. Covered parking provides year-round shade & convenience.

16. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Remodeled and updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home features front kitchen with eat in area. Lots of cabinet storage with slide out shelves. Laminate flooring thru out the house. New cabinet tops Fresh paint. All appliances convey, Home is approx 728 sq ft but feels open and airy. Furnishing will be available outside of escrow. Located at the Rose Garden Resort an active 55+ community. Home is close to the clubhouse and the mailboxes.

17. 2023-02-13
    status Pending 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Remodeled and updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home features front kitchen with eat in area. Lots of cabinet storage with slide out shelves. Laminate flooring thru out the house. New cabinet tops Fresh paint. All appliances convey, Home is approx 728 sq ft but feels open and airy. Furnishing will be available outside of escrow. Located at the Rose Garden Resort an active 55+ community. Home is close to the clubhouse and the mailboxes.

18. 2023-02-10
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Remodeled and updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home features front kitchen with eat in area. Lots of cabinet storage with slide out shelves. Laminate flooring thru out the house. New cabinet tops Fresh paint. All appliances convey, Home is approx 728 sq ft but feels open and airy. Furnishing will be available outside of escrow. Located at the Rose Garden Resort an active 55+ community. Home is close to the clubhouse and the mailboxes.

19. 2023-01-25
    listed $56,700 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Remodeled and updated 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home features front kitchen with eat in area. Lots of cabinet storage with slide out shelves. Laminate flooring thru out the house. New cabinet tops Fresh paint. All appliances convey, Home is approx 728 sq ft but feels open and airy. Furnishing will be available outside of escrow. Located at the Rose Garden Resort an active 55+ community. Home is close to the clubhouse and the mailboxes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,613
• − Property taxes: −$968
• − Insurance: −$322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$1,876
• Taxable income: $6,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $5,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. It has a good foundation and structure, but the interior could benefit from updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Some wear visible on cabinet fronts.
• Minor Living room furniture — Furniture appears slightly worn.
• Minor Laundry area — Appliances and cabinets show some wear and need cleaning.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and improve curb appeal.
• Both Replace worn-out furniture — New furniture can enhance the living space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Deep clean and organize laundry area — A well-maintained laundry area can make the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Some wear visible on cabinet fronts.	Minor	$500–3,000
Living room furniture · Furniture appears slightly worn.	Minor	$500–3,000
Laundry area · Appliances and cabinets show some wear and need cleaning.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and improve curb appeal. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out furniture — New furniture can enhance the living space and make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Deep clean and organize laundry area — A well-maintained laundry area can make the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+14.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Sold (MLS) $57,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Listed $56,700 ARMLS