301 S Gold St · Centralia, WA 98531

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 623 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 7,788 sqft lot Est $234k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell quickly. Small and cozy, 1 bedroom home on a big, fenced, corner lot in town. Walk to downtown a few blocks. This lot could accommodate an ADU or additional small home. The house is a fixer but on a big lot. This close to downtown however, and nearby Tennis/Pickleball courts, it would be worth it to either remodel, build new, or both. Also, with it's R-15 zoning, there are more options. Check that out with the City.

Key facts

• R-15 zoning
• Accommodate an adu
• Fenced corner lot

Tags

• FENCED CORNER LOT
• ACCOMMODATE AN ADU
• R-15 ZONING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-15; Zoning jurisdiction: City; Lot size approx. 0.1788 acres; MLS square footage source: appraisal
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Rehab Loan

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water (city); Sewer connected (city); City power; Cable connected (local); Energy: electric and natural gas
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Built on lot; Faces east; Entry level: main
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Effective year built 1963; Fixer condition
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Corner lot; Fenced fully; Gas available; High-speed internet available; Level topography; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Includes one bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Water heater; Fully fenced
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater located in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,625
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 S Gold St	0.00mi	1/1.0	697 (+12%)	0mo	$120,000	$172	80
407 S Gold St	0.08mi	1/2.0	593 (-5%)	16mo	$208,500	$352	71
515 Hillkress St	0.52mi	1/1.0	600 (-4%)	13mo	$225,000	$375	59
404 S Buckner St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	714 (+15%)	13mo	$187,000	$262	52
419 Yew St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	624 (+0%)	14mo	$235,000	$377	49
200 Yew St	0.71mi	1/1.0	580 (-7%)	17mo	$239,000	$412	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,318
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,213
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,229/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 E Maple St Apt 303 Centralia, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,250	$1.92	43d	1	0.34mi
401 N Ash St Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,625	$2.27	13d	2	0.67mi
1007 W Main St Unit 2 Centralia, WA	1.0	1.0	480	$825	$1.72	43d	1	0.69mi
1513 Lewis St Centralia, WA	1.0	1.0	546	$1,350	$2.47	13d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,229
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$87
• After-tax cash flow: $2,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,229 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.