209 Diebel Dr · Bloomington, TX 77905

$79,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1954 0.34 ac lot $67/sqft · at area comps Est $83k · at est. ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute three bedroom, one and a half bath sits on a large lot outside of Victoria city limits. This home has wonderful wood floors throughout, a spacious living room, abundant cabinets and counter space in the kitchen, a two car garage and a carport for storage! Spacious rooms and deep closets are sure to please! Call today to schedule your appointment!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,163 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bloomington ISD (rural): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #814 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.93%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,407
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -4.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $32,123
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $86,083
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,254/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10704 State Highway 185 S Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,600	$1.18	43d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $79,900 Pending 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2025-12-11
    listed $79,900 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This cute three bedroom, one and a half bath sits on a large lot outside of Victoria city limits. This home has wonderful wood floors throughout, a spacious living room, abundant cabinets and counter space in the kitchen, a two car garage and a carport for storage! Spacious rooms and deep closets are sure to please! Call today to schedule your appointment!

12. 2025-10-31
    historical
13. 2025-10-29
    price $79,900
14. 2025-05-30
    listed $99,900 Active
15. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus
16. 2022-05-08
    status Pending
17. 2022-05-06
    listed $109,900 Active
18. 2006-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,254
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $6,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bloomington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810500
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,679
• Composite: 12.4/100
• National rank: #9632
• State rank: #814 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bloomington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1163
• US rank: #20339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,442
• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $79,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $79,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $99,900 CTXMLS
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-08 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listed $109,900 CTXMLS
• 2006-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,254 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.