251 Patterson Rd Unit H17 · Haines City, FL 33844

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 481 sqft · Manufactured public records · 625 Days on market

Built 2003 3,001 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. WELCOME TO YOUR FLORIDA RETIREMENT OASIS IN A GATED/GOLF CART 55+COMMUNITY, WHERE YOU OWN YOUR LAND. .. this furnished 2 Beds/ 1 Bath home is located in the Heart of Central Florida. Home offers a Open Concept living/dining/kitchen all one level. Kitchen has a dishwasher. Hall bath with updated walk-in tiled showed and inside closet with washer/dryer. Primary Bedroom with lots of storage and built in closets. Secondary bedroom with large closet and back door entrance/exit with storage shed. BRAND NEW HVAC installed 9/2024. Rock yard for low maintenance. Covered front area for relaxing and watching the western sky sunsets. You also have a slight pond v

Key facts

• bocce ball
• Solar heated pool
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• UPDATED WALK-IN TILED SHOWER
• BRAND NEW HVAC INSTALLED
• ROCK YARD FOR LOW MAINTENANCE
• SOLAR HEATED POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• BOCCE BALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total building area 841 sq ft (living area listed as 649 sq ft); Lot about 0.07 acre (approx. 50 x 69)
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly $80.83 / annual $970); HOA amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court(s), recreational facilities; Association fee includes pool, trash, private road, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund; Community features: association-owned recreation, community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, pool; Senior community; Cats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces northwest
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a CHAR IOT (manufacturer: CHARIOT)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Paved lot; Private maintained asphalt road; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 625 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 625 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,223
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,615
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,715/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $150	+0% $112	+5% $74	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $57	+0% $112	+5% $167	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $146	base $112	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 625 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 624 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 621 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 620 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 619 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 618 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 615 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 612 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 611 DOM
11. 2026-03-30
    price $135,000
12. 2024-09-27
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,715
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $1,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,715 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.