5231 Honeyvine Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2001 5,039 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Simply wonderful floor plan! This one is a must-see! Spacious living, dining, and a family room with a cozy gas-log fireplace. Split bedrooms. Well-maintained one-owner home! Great location, close to the Medical Center and Downtown Houston. Never flooded and no HOA. Newer roof, only 4 years old.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Great location
• Gas-log fireplace

Tags

• GAS-LOG FIREPLACE
• GREAT LOCATION
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,010 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,642
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -1.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5227 Honeyvine Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-3%)	2mo	$199,000	$141	88
12935 Rockford Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$152	83
4807 Tili And Gili St	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-2%)	2mo	$249,990	$176	74
5313 Basquiat Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,427 (-1%)	4mo	$279,538	$196	73
4821 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-2%)	4mo	$269,990	$190	72
12916 Ami And Tami Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-2%)	6mo	$249,990	$176	71
4218 Richmeadow Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-4%)	0mo	$238,500	$172	70
12123 Murr Way	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (+2%)	6mo	$225,000	$152	68
12106 Panay Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+6%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	65
11926 Panay Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (+4%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	60
12302 Swae Lee	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,540 (+7%)	1mo	$243,800	$158	53
5315 Fairgreen Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,576 (+9%)	2mo	$199,990	$127	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $19,100
• Equity at exit: $89,868

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $67,043
• Equity at exit: $135,054

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $83	+0% $23	+5% $-36	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-52	+0% $23	+5% $99	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $77	base $23	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	0.48mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	44d	1	0.49mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.56mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.57mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	0.77mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	0d	1	0.82mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	0.84mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	8d	1	0.87mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	23d	1	0.90mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	27	0.92mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	1.03mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,319	$1.13	0d	1	1.03mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	1.03mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	1.06mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.12mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	1.26mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	1.29mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    listed $229,000 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Simply wonderful floor plan! This one is a must-see! Spacious living, dining, and a family room with a cozy gas-log fireplace. Split bedrooms. Well-maintained one-owner home! Great location, close to the Medical Center and Downtown Houston. Never flooded and no HOA. Newer roof, only 4 years old.

14. 2002-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2002-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,562 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.