1514 Commerce St · Wellsville, OH 43968

$76,700

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1930 2,178 sqft lot $60/sqft · 24% above area Est $62k · 24% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept Colonial with many UPDATES!!! Spacious Eat In-kitchen w/ door to the outside, stainless steel sink, some newer bottom cabinets! Formal Dining Room! High Ceilings! Ceiling fans throughout! REMODELED half bath! 1 full bath features walk-in shower * 1st floor laundry! NWR furnace * NWR H20 tank * NWR roof app. 3 years * NWR electrical box '25 * Some NWR windows * Glass block windows * Inviting FRONT Porch * Slab for garage * MOVE IN condition - Must See home!!! Great location!!!

Key facts

• Eat in-kitchen
• Formal dining room
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• EAT IN-KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• REMODELED HALF BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NWR FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#505 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wellsville Local (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #546 of 656 in OH (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Columbiana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($530 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Columbiana County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,496 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,004
• List price: $76,700
• Delta: 23.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 15 St	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-1%)	3mo	$66,000	$52	86
511 Aten Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,194 (-7%)	2mo	$38,500	$32	74
612 15th St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,168 (-9%)	4mo	$35,000	$30	70
1812 Danbury Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-6%)	4mo	$55,000	$45	68
1400 Center St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-11%)	9mo	$22,000	$19	67
1505 Commerce St	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+11%)	16mo	$29,000	$20	65
1230 Florence Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,259 (-2%)	1mo	$235,000	$187	64
1728 Maple Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+8%)	14mo	$99,900	$72	64
1802 Chester Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-2%)	12mo	$89,900	$72	63
1330 Parkview Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+1%)	20mo	$160,000	$123	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $28,564
• Equity at exit: $29,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $74,174
• Equity at exit: $41,807

Cash invested: $21,476 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43968

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$402
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $865/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $76,700

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $399	+0% $378	+5% $356	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $333	+0% $378	+5% $422	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $397	base $378	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,175
• Closing costs: $2,301
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,700 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,700 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,700 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,700 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,700 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,700 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,700 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,700 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,700 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,700 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,700 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,700 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $76,700 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,700 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,700 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,700 Active 208 DOM
17. 2025-11-04
    listed $76,700 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Well kept Colonial with many UPDATES!!! Spacious Eat In-kitchen w/ door to the outside, stainless steel sink, some newer bottom cabinets! Formal Dining Room! High Ceilings! Ceiling fans throughout! REMODELED half bath! 1 full bath features walk-in shower * 1st floor laundry! NWR furnace * NWR H20 tank * NWR roof app. 3 years * NWR electrical box '25 * Some NWR windows * Glass block windows * Inviting FRONT Porch * Slab for garage * MOVE IN condition - Must See home!!! Great location!!!

18. 2025-10-01
    historical
19. 2025-04-19
    listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$166/yr (+$14/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,296
• − Property taxes: −$865
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$2,231
• Taxable income: $3,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $3,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Local
• NCES district ID: 3904503
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,795
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5563
• State rank: #546 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #8502

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellsville, OH
• County: Columbiana · 99,532 people
• Population (ZIP): 6,445
• Household income: $62,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.8

Population outlook (Columbiana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,353 people
• By 2030: 94,225 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 85,169 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 76,157 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 58,451 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 42,805 · -56.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbiana

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 25.1% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Current HPI: 181.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Listed $76,700 MLSNOW
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-04-19 Listed $79,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $865 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.