3859 Garden Hill Ln · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$339,285

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Land · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 6,500 sqft lot $193/sqft · at area comps Est $350k · at est. $58/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully designed single-story home makes a grand first impression the moment you walk through the door. Perfect for entertaining, it features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a versatile study complete with a closet and built-in shelving for additional storage. The kitchen is a true centerpiece, showcasing elegant white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry with abundant drawers and storage, and a large island ideal for gathering. A 5-burner stainless steel gas range makes it perfect for the chef in the family. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, complete with a gas line for easy grilling. Additional highlights include brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2-inch faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting for a polished, modern touch throughout.

Key facts

• Upgraded cabinetry
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• VERSATILE STUDY
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20k ($244k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $339k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $334,195 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.29%
• DSCR: 12.45
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,205
• List price: $339,285
• Delta: -3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.08×
• Total profit: $1,242,621
• Equity at exit: $50,588

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.99×
• Total profit: $2,753,720
• Equity at exit: $29,335

Cash invested: $95,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,779
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,644/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,977
• Net cashflow: $20,369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,678

Max offer price $339,285

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20,561	-5% $20,465	+0% $20,369	+5% $20,273	+10% $20,177
Rent	-10% $18,121	-5% $19,245	+0% $20,369	+5% $21,493	+10% $22,617
Rate	-1.0pp $20,540	-0.5pp $20,455	base $20,369	+0.5pp $20,281	+1.0pp $20,192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,821
• Closing costs: $10,179
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	44d	1	0.84mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.87mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   This beautifully designed single-story home makes a grand first impression the moment you walk through the door. Perfect for entertaining, it features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a versatile study complete with a closet and built-in shelving for additional storage. The kitchen is a true centerpiece, showcasing elegant white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry with abundant drawers and storage, and a large island ideal for gathering. A 5-burner stainless steel gas range makes it perfect for the chef in the family. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, complete with a gas line for easy grilling. Additional highlights include brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2-inch faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting for a polished, modern touch throughout.

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $339,285 Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   This beautifully designed single-story home makes a grand first impression the moment you walk through the door. Perfect for entertaining, it features 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a versatile study complete with a closet and built-in shelving for additional storage. The kitchen is a true centerpiece, showcasing elegant white quartz countertops, upgraded JCraft cabinetry with abundant drawers and storage, and a large island ideal for gathering. A 5-burner stainless steel gas range makes it perfect for the chef in the family. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, complete with a gas line for easy grilling. Additional highlights include brick on all four sides, full gutters, 2-inch faux wood blinds, and under-cabinet lighting for a polished, modern touch throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,209 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,565/yr (+$380/mo · 277.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $341,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,005
• − Property taxes: −$1,644
• − Insurance: −$1,696
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,323
• − Management: −$27,323
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,870
• Taxable income: $253,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60,955
• After-tax cash flow: $183,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $339,285 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,644 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.