103 Dahlia Ave · Florin, CA 95828

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $169k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom home in the desirable 55+ Casa De Flores community. This inviting home offers a bright, open floor plan with the rare benefit of two separate living spaces a comfortable living room and an additional family room plus a formal dining area and a convenient bar near the kitchen, making the home feel both spacious and welcoming. A large sunroom provides additional space for relaxing, hobbies, or entertaining. Outside, enjoy a charming front porch, private patio area, and colorful landscaping that adds wonderful curb appeal. The home also features an electric wheelchair lift for easy access and a durable Tuff Shed for extra storage. Washer, drye

Key facts

• Charming front porch
• Large sunroom
• Private patio area

Tags

• TWO SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• LARGE SUNROOM
• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA
• COLORFUL LANDSCAPING
• ELECTRIC WHEELCHAIR LIFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.20%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Dahlia Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$89,000	$64	100
134 Gardenia	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$120,000	$83	91
115 Gardenia	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	84
12 Pina St	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$75,000	$56	83
7406 Pardis Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	78
7406 Pardis Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	78
8676 Beauxart Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	5mo	$322,000	$224	71
66 Millbrook Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$205,000	$153	68
97 Cantabrook St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	1mo	$220,000	$141	65
51 Millbrook Cir	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	1mo	$180,000	$144	60
8221 Tiki Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$103	60
8622 Beauxart Cir #39	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	1mo	$270,000	$225	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $60,815
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $131,709
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $1,292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,353	-5% $1,323	+0% $1,292	+5% $1,261	+10% $1,230
Rent	-10% $1,101	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,292	+5% $1,387	+10% $1,482
Rate	-1.0pp $1,337	-0.5pp $1,314	base $1,292	+0.5pp $1,269	+1.0pp $1,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Maple Grove Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,195	$1.41	24d	1	0.47mi
8604 Maple Grove Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1557	$2,195	$1.41	8d	1	0.47mi
8550 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,795	$2.31	3d	16	0.66mi
8620 Tiogawoods Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1137	$2,750	$2.42	8d	1	0.80mi
7756 Southbreeze Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,395	$1.84	2d	1	0.83mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	24d	1	1.23mi
7733 Robinette Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	44d	1	1.35mi
7639 Clover Woods Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,895	$1.84	44d	1	1.40mi
8184 Creeping Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,695	$1.49	5d	1	1.41mi
8159 Laurel Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1214	$2,396	$1.97	5d	1	1.42mi
8112 Creeping Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1214	$2,495	$2.06	12d	1	1.49mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $14,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,594
• After-tax cash flow: $11,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B