Midland Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$314,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,081 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story home has a versatile layout with everything residents need to live comfortably. Beside the foyer is a convenient study, while down the hall is the open concept living area which features a living room, kitchen and breakfast nook with access to a covered patio. The owner's suite is on the first floor, while upstairs are two additional bedrooms and a game room loft.

Key facts

• Game room loft
• Versatile layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• VERSATILE LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT STUDY
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $314,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $432,907.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-823 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 768 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,533 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,907
• List price: $314,999
• Delta: -27.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Tree House Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,204 (+6%)	8mo	$404,990	$184	71
2217 Hazel Lily Run	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,001 (-4%)	0mo	$423,999	$212	69
2616 Cantura Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,086 (+0%)	1mo	$324,999	$156	68
1901 Kit Fox Run	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,945 (-6%)	5mo	$360,000	$185	56
1821 Jade Forest Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,291 (+10%)	2mo	$433,999	$189	54
2008 Cantura Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,164 (+4%)	4mo	$299,000	$138	54
2025 Osage Trl	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,155 (+4%)	2mo	$349,990	$162	53
2416 Ranch Hawk Sq	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,889 (-9%)	0mo	$424,990	$225	52
2225 Hazel Lily Run	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,358 (+13%)	3mo	$414,990	$176	51
2404 Tarrango Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-9%)	4mo	$364,990	$192	46
2514 Decoy Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-15%)	0mo	$279,900	$157	42
2021 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,815 (-13%)	6mo	$294,900	$162	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-130,383
• Equity at exit: $64,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-211,285
• Equity at exit: $37,430

Cash invested: $121,214 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 186 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $370,000 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 159 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,270
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$541 /mo · $6,494/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,787

Max offer price $313,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-524	-5% $-673	+0% $-823	+5% $-972	+10% $-1,122
Rent	-10% $-1,040	-5% $-931	+0% $-823	+5% $-714	+10% $-606
Rate	-1.0pp $-605	-0.5pp $-713	base $-823	+0.5pp $-935	+1.0pp $-1,049

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,227
• Closing costs: $12,987
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2713	$2,895	$1.07	11d	1	0.27mi
1808 Sierra Rose Trce Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2298	$2,900	$1.26	30d	1	0.31mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	139d	1	0.32mi
2137 San Simeon Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,391	$0.90	40d	1	0.54mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	94d	1	0.59mi
2516 Buck Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,850	$1.82	20d	1	0.64mi
2324 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2190	$2,500	$1.14	80d	1	0.67mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,225	$1.26	30d	1	0.70mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	120d	1	0.72mi
2108 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.75mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	113d	1	0.77mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	139d	1	0.82mi
1813 Bette Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,241	$1.45	33d	1	0.82mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	116d	1	0.83mi
1421 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2828	$2,310	$0.82	11d	1	0.95mi
808 Creekside Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$2,200	$1.17	50d	1	0.96mi
2008 Cheshire Ct Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2003	$3,675	$1.83	84d	1	0.99mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	139d	1	1.02mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,155	$1.02	5d	1	1.02mi
2332 Boardwalk Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2651	$3,295	$1.24	34d	1	1.02mi
2332 Boardwalk Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2651	$3,295	$1.24	45d	1	1.02mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,225	$1.14	6d	1	1.05mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	103d	1	1.05mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	84d	1	1.06mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	67d	1	1.06mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	120d	1	1.08mi
1427 Caladium Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,175	$1.48	56d	1	1.11mi
1513 Lone Star Ct Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1791	$3,500	$1.95	45d	1	1.13mi
1349 Rutherford Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1968	$2,095	$1.06	71d	1	1.14mi
1608 Willow Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$2,323	$1.20	54d	1	1.16mi
1045 Cavern Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,095	$1.26	18d	1	1.21mi
2521 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,600	$1.72	18d	1	1.22mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,899	$1.06	71d	1	1.24mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	83d	1	1.25mi
824 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	50d	1	1.26mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	139d	1	1.28mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	139d	1	1.30mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	139d	1	1.33mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	90d	1	1.35mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	116d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mesquite, TX 75181
• Financial info: List price $334,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Home design: New construction — Midland planSingle-family property (plan-based)
• Construction: Newly built (2026 listing; plan model)
• Exterior features: 2,081 living area (home size)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $314,999 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $314,999 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $314,999 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $314,999 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $314,999 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $314,999 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $314,999 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $314,999 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $314,999 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $314,999 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $314,999 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $314,999 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $314,999 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $314,999 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $314,999 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $314,999 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $314,999 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $334,999 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $334,999 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $334,999 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $334,999 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $334,999 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $334,999 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $334,999 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $334,999 Active 127 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $334,999 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $334,999 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $334,999 Active 124 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $334,999 Active 123 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $334,999 Active 122 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $334,999 Active 121 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $334,999 Active 120 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $334,999 Active 119 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $334,999 Active 118 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $334,999 Active 117 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $334,999 Active 116 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $334,999 Active 115 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $334,999 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $334,999 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $334,999 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $334,999 Active 110 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $334,999 Active 109 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $334,999 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $334,999 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $334,999 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $334,999 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $334,999 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $334,999 Active 101 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $334,999 Active 99 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $334,999 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,250
• − Property taxes: −$6,494
• − Insurance: −$2,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,636
• − Management: −$2,636
• − Depreciation: −$12,594
• Taxable loss: −$17,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,405–$31,215 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — Modern countertops can improve functionality and aesthetics in the kitchen. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gentry El F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Berry Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Mesquite, TX 75181
• Financial info: List price $334,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Home design: New construction — Midland planSingle-family property (plan-based)
• Construction: Newly built (2026 listing; plan model)
• Exterior features: 2,081 living area (home size)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)