2845 North Ave · Grand Junction, CO 81501

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $133k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable & Well-Maintained Living in the Heart of Grand Junction! Welcome home to this charming and well-cared-for 2 -bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in a quiet community just off North Avenue in central Grand Junction. Offering an affordable opportunity for home ownership, this property has been lovingly maintained and provides a comfortable, functional layout with an open living, dining, and kitchen area. Outside, you'll find off-street parking, a storage shed for extra space, and a yard area perfect for enjoying Colorado's sunshine. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, parks, medical facilities, and everyday amenities, you'll appreciate the ease of livin

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Central location
• Storage shed

Tags

• OFF STREET PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; 1 story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built with a foundation appropriate for a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Pantry; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.45%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,266
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2850 Texas Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	768 (-4%)	8mo	$115,000	$150	64
2851 1/2 Hall Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	900 (+13%)	8mo	$190,000	$211	44
548 1/2 Normandy Way	0.62mi	2/1.0	896 (+12%)	9mo	$149,900	$167	43
2859 Hall Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	728 (-9%)	21mo	$205,000	$282	40
2856 1/2 Hall Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	22mo	$98,000	$136	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $40,076
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $120,749
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81501

• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $734	+0% $710	+5% $686	+10% $661
Rent	-10% $590	-5% $650	+0% $710	+5% $769	+10% $829
Rate	-1.0pp $745	-0.5pp $728	base $710	+0.5pp $692	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
491 E 1/4 Rd Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	897	$1,650	$1.84	21d	6	0.19mi
521 28 1/2 Rd Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,100	$2.02	21d	1	0.32mi
2855 Elm Cir Unit 35 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,050	$1.25	21d	1	0.33mi
446 N 22nd St Apt 4 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	14d	1	0.79mi
1313 N 20th St Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	988	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	0.90mi
1900 Chipeta Ct Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,900	$1.77	14d	1	0.94mi
1615 N 20th St Unit A Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	14d	1	0.97mi
2909 Dawn Dr Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.5	950	$1,650	$1.74	21d	1	1.00mi
2907 Dawn Dr Unit 4 Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	21d	1	1.00mi
2907 Dawn Dr Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,650	$1.65	14d	1	1.00mi
1726 N 19th St Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	1100	$750	$0.68	14d	1	1.04mi
568 Dawn Ct Unit 1 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,100	$1.06	14d	1	1.04mi
541-529 E 1/2 Rd Grand Junction, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,510	$2.20	14d	1	1.12mi
1800 Main St Grand Junction, CO	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	845	$1,350	$1.60	14d	1	1.13mi
1510 Glenwood Ave Unit 100 Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	555	$860	$1.55	14d	1	1.17mi
1510 Glenwood Ave Unit 202 Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	555	$860	$1.55	14d	1	1.17mi
1425 Bunting Ave Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	636	$1,295	$2.04	21d	1	1.24mi
1531 Main St Grand Junction, CO	3.0	2.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	21d	1	1.28mi
1368 Elm Ave Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	14d	1	1.30mi
1302 Glenwood Ave Unit 104 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	654	$1,200	$1.83	21d	1	1.32mi
1302 Glenwood Ave Unit 104 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	654	$1,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.32mi
1355 Mesa Ave Grand Junction, CO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,850	$1.88	14d	1	1.35mi
2961 1/2 Cedar Pl Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,250	$1.74	21d	1	1.40mi
923 N 12th St Unit 26 Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $70,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $6,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Grand Junction

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #2222

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Junction, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 113,583
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 24,011
• Household income: $53,666
• Rent vs Own: 53.2% rent · 46.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1317.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Native American 1% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.18%
• Current HPI: 331.3836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.92%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $70,000 cren
• 2024-09-11 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Listed $50,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Coming Soon — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid