15749 Orange Dr · Harlingen, TX 78552

$84,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2008 5,500 sqft lot $94/sqft · 15% above area Est $73k · 15% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in an over 55 community, this two bedroom, two bathroom is move in ready. All appliances and nice furnishings pass with sale. In addition to the air conditioned living area, there is a large screened in porch with lots of space for semi outdoor living. A one car carport is attached to the home, plus there is a storage building. Come enjoy all the amenities this park has to offer.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Storage building
• 5,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED IN PORCH
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,895 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.54%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,370
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: 15.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15898 Washington Palm Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	1mo	$135,000	$138	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,260
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $24,072
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 S Taos Blvd Unit A Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.5	908	$1,275	$1.40	44d	1	0.56mi
6020 Masters Blvd Unit 2 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,075	$1.07	43d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,500 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,500 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,500 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,500 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $84,500 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Situated in an over 55 community, this two bedroom, two bathroom is move in ready. All appliances and nice furnishings pass with sale. In addition to the air conditioned living area, there is a large screened in porch with lots of space for semi outdoor living. A one car carport is attached to the home, plus there is a storage building. Come enjoy all the amenities this park has to offer.

16. 2026-02-26
    listed $89,500 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Situated in an over 55 community, this two bedroom, two bathroom is move in ready. All appliances and nice furnishings pass with sale. In addition to the air conditioned living area, there is a large screened in porch with lots of space for semi outdoor living. A one car carport is attached to the home, plus there is a storage building. Come enjoy all the amenities this park has to offer.

17. 2020-09-17
    soldstatus
18. 1994-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $3,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$837
• After-tax cash flow: $3,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $84,500 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $89,500 RGVMLS
• 2020-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,292 · +20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.