22089 45th Dr · Branford, FL 32024

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot $115/sqft · 29% below area Est $198k · 29% under ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Motivated sellers—bring your offers! 3BR/2BA single-wide manufactured home (1997) on a full 1-acre lot at 22089 45th Dr, Lake City, FL, featuring a metal roof, fenced area, mature trees for added privacy, and 3 sheds for extra storage—perfect for peaceful country living with plenty of usable land; conveniently located approx. 20 minutes to Lake City, 15 minutes to Branford, 20 minutes to Ichetucknee Springs State Park, and 30 minutes to Ginnie Springs—great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Fenced area
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• FENCED AREA
• MATURE TREES
• 3 SHEDS
• 1 ACRE LOT
• USABLE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: AG-1; Lot size: 1 acre

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.7% in Branford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#748 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,067
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -29.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $112,879
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.74×
• Total profit: $303,578
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $144,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $144,900 520-char remark
18. 2026-05-06
    price $165,000 520-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    listed $179,999 Active 520-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 104.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,924
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $5,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suwannee
• NCES district ID: 1201830
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,785
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4503
• State rank: #52 of 73 in FL

Livability — Branford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #16225

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Suwannee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,226 people
• By 2030: 45,833 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 46,631 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 46,544 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 43,635 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 34,318 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suwannee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.3% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.3 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $140,000 NFMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $144,000 NFMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $144,900 NFMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $165,000 NFMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $179,999 NFMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.