10220 Red Fern Ct · Oak Ridge North, TX 77385

$295,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,199 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2012 5,248 sqft lot Est $429k · 31% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New from LGI Homes: This beautiful new 2133 sq ft two story home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The kitchen features beautiful wood cabinets, granite countertops, gas range and black kitchen appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, interior utility room. Master bedroom is located downstairs with a large master bathroom with garden tub and separate shower.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Large walk-in closet
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• EXCELLENT NEARBY SCHOOLS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (cmi) with annual fee of $281; Community has curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2012; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Concrete road/drive surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar; Pantry / walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17 x 15); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (11 x 11, 11 x 11, 13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Oak Ridge North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in TX, #708 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D+.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Houser El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 636 students, 70% FRL); Irons J H (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 1,344 students, 52% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,498 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $428,805
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10308 Lakewood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,286 (+4%)	3mo	$450,000	$197	80
10312 Lakewood Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,105 (-4%)	4mo	$455,000	$216	76
10208 Jewel Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,937 (-12%)	6mo	$275,000	$142	67
1011 Chateau Woods Parkway Dr	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,988 (-10%)	4mo	$495,000	$249	67
10208 Red Fern Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,965 (-11%)	11mo	$349,895	$178	66
1306 Beech Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,219 (+1%)	17mo	$279,999	$126	64
10220 Wood Fern Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (-11%)	10mo	$314,900	$161	62
10252 Sunset Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,288 (+4%)	8mo	$395,000	$173	53
11926 Silver Leaf Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,262 (+3%)	14mo	$624,000	$276	46
—	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (-11%)	12mo	$825,000	$423	33
10314 Sunset Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (-14%)	13mo	$365,000	$194	26
10310 Sunset Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-15%)	14mo	$365,000	$195	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,353
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,754
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,821/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,652

Max offer price $275,949

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-24	+0% $-108	+5% $-191	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-207	+0% $-108	+5% $-9	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-33	base $-108	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10648 Fussel Rd Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	45d	1	0.87mi
27226 Pyeatt Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1933	$1,950	$1.01	5d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,821 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$577/yr (+$48/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,821
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Ridge North

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #708

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute B- Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+75.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-15 Listed $167,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,821 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.