5420 Forest Cir · Dublin, VA 24084

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1996 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Peaceful lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PEACEFUL LOT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.4 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential detached mobile home; Single-story / One level
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Storm doors; Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Gas log fireplace in the living room; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#251 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riverlawn Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #650 of 1,108 statewide, top 62%, 382 students, 78% FRL); Pulaski County Middle (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 807 students, 77% FRL); Pulaski County Senior High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,246 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 47% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,621 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,811
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,596
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24084

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $75	+0% $25	+5% $-24	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-28	+0% $25	+5% $79	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $70	base $25	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $174,900 Active
19. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $155,000
20. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

21. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

22. 2023-09-07
    historical Active Under Contract 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

23. 2023-09-07
    status Pending 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

24. 2023-09-03
    listed $150,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

25. 2023-09-03
    listed $150,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Beautiful, well maintained doublewide in a quiet country setting within the Dublin area. Spacious and usable fenced in yard. Newly paved driveway. Many updates throughout including LPV flooring, paint, stove and refrigerator. Large rooms & walk in closets. Washer and dryer convey. Conveniently located within 15 mins or less to shopping, restaurants, schools and the interstate.

26. 2017-08-21
    soldstatus $71,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$63/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$663
• After-tax cash flow: $966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103150
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,912
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2537
• State rank: #86 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #8475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,860

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,949 people
• By 2030: 31,812 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,224 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 26,691 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 21,312 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 15,697 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.37%
• Current HPI: 170.282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+143.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $174,900 NRVMLS
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $155,000 SWVAR
• 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NRVMLS
• 2023-09-07 Contingent — SWVAR
• 2023-09-07 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2023-09-03 Listed $150,000 SWVAR
• 2023-09-03 Listed $150,000 NRVMLS
• 2017-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $71,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $673 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.