627 N Forest Ave · Springfield, MO 65802

$109,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1946 0.47 ac lot $83/sqft · 34% below area Est $139k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow with charm, featuring newer siding and a walk-in shower. The home offers additional opportunity to update and personalize over time. Situated on two fenced lots with mature trees providing privacy and outdoor space. A versatile property suitable for an owner-occupant or investor. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Fenced lots
• New siding
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW SIDING
• NEW FLOORING
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FENCED LOTS
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,645 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.47%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,141
• List price: $109,500
• Delta: -21.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 N Warren Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,260 (-5%)	2mo	$119,500	$95	84
1024 N Brown Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,258 (-5%)	2mo	$100,000	$79	73
735 N Brown Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-9%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	68
2336 W Nichols St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (+5%)	3mo	$147,900	$106	68
724 N Marion Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-11%)	4mo	$115,000	$98	62
2157 W Phelps St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,514 (+14%)	1mo	$164,900	$109	60
1027 Warren Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$149	58
1929 W Calhoun St	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,190 (-10%)	3mo	$39,900	$34	50
1347 N Brown Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,170 (-12%)	4mo	$162,000	$138	48
1336 N Lafontaine Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,160 (-12%)	3mo	$130,000	$112	44
1735 W Webster St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	2mo	$185,000	$157	38
1205 N Drury Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (-12%)	3mo	$185,000	$159	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,334
• Equity at exit: $16,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $16,944
• Equity at exit: $9,468

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65802

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $403/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	23d	1	0.13mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	43d	1	0.14mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	13d	1	0.47mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	43d	1	0.64mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	23d	1	0.65mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	21d	1	0.75mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	21d	1	0.90mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	21d	1	0.90mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	43d	1	0.96mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	23d	1	1.00mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	13d	1	1.00mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	13d	1	1.02mi
1200 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	13d	3	1.16mi
539 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,025	$0.68	13d	1	1.18mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	43d	1	1.20mi
627 S Fort Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$895	$1.02	23d	1	1.22mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	21d	1	1.24mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	23d	1	1.25mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	13d	1	1.31mi
930 W Harrison St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1046	$1,150	$1.10	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,500 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,500 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,500 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,500 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,500 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,500 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,500 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,500 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,500 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,500 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,500 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,500 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,500 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,500 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $109,500 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow with charm, featuring newer siding and a walk-in shower. The home offers additional opportunity to update and personalize over time. Situated on two fenced lots with mature trees providing privacy and outdoor space. A versatile property suitable for an owner-occupant or investor. Sold AS-IS.

16. 2026-03-12
    price $119,500 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow with charm, featuring newer siding and a walk-in shower. The home offers additional opportunity to update and personalize over time. Situated on two fenced lots with mature trees providing privacy and outdoor space. A versatile property suitable for an owner-occupant or investor. Sold AS-IS.

17. 2026-02-28
    listed $124,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Classic 3-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow with charm, featuring newer siding and a walk-in shower. The home offers additional opportunity to update and personalize over time. Situated on two fenced lots with mature trees providing privacy and outdoor space. A versatile property suitable for an owner-occupant or investor. Sold AS-IS.

18. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus
19. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus
20. 2023-12-04
    soldstatus Closed 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Classic 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow house has a lot of charm. Bathroom with walk-in shower has been completely remodeled. Sunroom is a bonus for additional living space, and outside you have 2 shops/garage spaces. Property is fenced in and sits on 2 lots with beautiful trees and privacy. This home has great potential for you as an owner and/or investor! House is being sold AS-IS.

21. 2023-11-09
    status Pending 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Classic 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow house has a lot of charm. Bathroom with walk-in shower has been completely remodeled. Sunroom is a bonus for additional living space, and outside you have 2 shops/garage spaces. Property is fenced in and sits on 2 lots with beautiful trees and privacy. This home has great potential for you as an owner and/or investor! House is being sold AS-IS.

22. 2023-10-23
    price $78,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Classic 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow house has a lot of charm. Bathroom with walk-in shower has been completely remodeled. Sunroom is a bonus for additional living space, and outside you have 2 shops/garage spaces. Property is fenced in and sits on 2 lots with beautiful trees and privacy. This home has great potential for you as an owner and/or investor! House is being sold AS-IS.

23. 2023-10-13
    listed $85,000 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Classic 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow house has a lot of charm. Bathroom with walk-in shower has been completely remodeled. Sunroom is a bonus for additional living space, and outside you have 2 shops/garage spaces. Property is fenced in and sits on 2 lots with beautiful trees and privacy. This home has great potential for you as an owner and/or investor! House is being sold AS-IS.

24. 2023-10-10
    historical $85,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Classic 2 bedroom 1 bath bungalow house has a lot of charm. Bathroom with walk-in shower has been completely remodeled. Sunroom is a bonus for additional living space, and outside you have 2 shops/garage spaces. Property is fenced in and sits on 2 lots with beautiful trees and privacy. This home has great potential for you as an owner and/or investor! House is being sold AS-IS.

25. 2020-07-06
    soldstatus
26. 2019-07-03
    soldstatus
27. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus
28. 2018-04-13
    listed $45,900
29. 2009-11-05
    soldstatus
30. 2009-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $403 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$660/yr (+$55/mo · 163.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$403
• − Insurance: −$548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable income: $177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 46,739
• Household income: $55,019
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1818.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.72%
• Current HPI: 212.9826
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $109,500 SOMO
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $119,500 SOMO
• 2026-02-28 Listed $124,000 SOMO
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-04 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-11-09 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-10-23 Price Changed $78,000 SOMO
• 2023-10-13 Listed $85,000 SOMO
• 2023-10-10 Coming Soon $85,000 SOMO
• 2020-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-03 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-13 Listed $45,900 SOMO
• 2009-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $403 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.