860 527th Cir · Nessel, MN 55080

$399,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2004 2.25 ac lot $174/sqft · 43% below area Est $705k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful 4-level split situated on a spacious corner lot on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering over 2 acres and the feeling of peaceful country living all around you. This well-maintained home features new flooring on both the main and lower level, along with a new well pump installed in 2023 for added peace of mind. Inside, you will find a warm and inviting atmosphere with touches of shabby chic style that add character and charm throughout the home. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, including a cozy fireplace perfect for relaxing evenings. Step outside and enjoy stunning sunset views from the 23 x 15 maintenance-free deck overlooking the expansive backyard, ideal for entertaining or simply taking in the serene surroundings. This property offers the perfect combination of space, privacy, charm, and updates in a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• 2.25 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Braham Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $375,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.47%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $705,150
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -43.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-26,314
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $26,333
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55080

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,922/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,273

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $829	-5% $716	+0% $603	+5% $490	+10% $377
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $443	+0% $603	+5% $762	+10% $922
Rate	-1.0pp $804	-0.5pp $704	base $603	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $399,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 4-level split situated on a spacious corner lot on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering over 2 acres and the feeling of peaceful country living all around you. This well-maintained home features new flooring on both the main and lower level, along with a new well pump installed in 2023 for added peace of mind. Inside, you will find a warm and inviting atmosphere with touches of shabby chic style that add character and charm throughout the home. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, including a cozy fireplace perfect for relaxing evenings. Step outside and enjoy stunning sunset views from the 23 x 15 maintenance-free deck overlooking the expansive backyard, ideal for entertaining or simply taking in the serene surroundings. This property offers the perfect combination of space, privacy, charm, and updates in a peaceful setting.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $415,000 Active 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful 4-level split situated on a spacious corner lot on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering over 2 acres and the feeling of peaceful country living all around you. This well-maintained home features new flooring on both the main and lower level, along with a new well pump installed in 2023 for added peace of mind. Inside, you will find a warm and inviting atmosphere with touches of shabby chic style that add character and charm throughout the home. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, including a cozy fireplace perfect for relaxing evenings. Step outside and enjoy stunning sunset views from the 23 x 15 maintenance-free deck overlooking the expansive backyard, ideal for entertaining or simply taking in the serene surroundings. This property offers the perfect combination of space, privacy, charm, and updates in a peaceful setting.

19. 2022-06-03
    historical 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

20. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $376,500 Sold 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

21. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $376,500

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

22. 2022-05-04
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

23. 2022-04-04
    status Contingent - Sale of Another Property 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

24. 2022-04-01
    listed $350,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

25. 2022-03-29
    historical $350,000 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Welcome home! Imagine yourself in this beautiful 4 level split on a huge corner lot and the feeling of country living surrounding you. Enjoy your evening sunsets on the maintenance free deck that's overlooking over 2 acres of lush green grass, thanks to the irrigation system. With the HUGE lot, HUGE garage, HUGE bedrooms, this house is sure to please!

26. 2020-03-21
    historical
27. 2020-03-19
    listed $289,900 Active
28. 2016-09-30
    soldstatus $196,000
29. 2015-06-27
    historical
30. 2015-06-03
    status Active
31. 2015-06-01
    historical
32. 2015-04-02
    status Active
33. 2015-04-01
    historical
34. 2014-08-22
    listed $199,999 Active
35. 2014-08-11
    historical
36. 2014-08-01
    price $224,900
37. 2014-06-14
    price $229,900
38. 2014-05-19
    listed $235,000 Active
39. 2005-07-18
    soldstatus $245,000
40. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $245,000
41. 2005-06-08
    historical
42. 2005-03-31
    listed $244,900
43. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $43,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,922 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,195 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,922
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,874
• − Management: −$3,874
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$193
• After-tax cash flow: $7,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Braham Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706060
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,333
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3987
• State rank: #170 of 301 in MN

Livability — Nessel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,281

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.23%
• Current HPI: 336.3158
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+819.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $399,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $415,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $376,500 Public Records
• 2022-06-01 Sold (MLS) $376,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-29 Coming Soon $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-19 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-02 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-22 Listed $199,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-01 Price Changed $224,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Price Changed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-19 Listed $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-06 Sold (MLS) $245,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-31 Listed $244,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $43,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,922 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.