876 41st Pl NE #31 · Salem, OR 97301

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1979 $67/sqft · 40% below area Est $74k · 40% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• A/c ready
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• A/C READY
• CLOSE TO LANCASTER MALL
• CLOSE TO BUS TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (542 students, 71% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.70%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,439
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -39.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 41st Ave #66	0.08mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	8mo	$59,800	$89	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $36,875
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $79,243
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $102/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $766	+0% $753	+5% $740	+10% $727
Rent	-10% $651	-5% $702	+0% $753	+5% $804	+10% $854
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $764	base $753	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	45d	3	0.49mi
4704 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	658	$1,472	$2.24	15d	15	0.58mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 803 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,225	$1.63	15d	1	0.65mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 837 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,125	$1.50	15d	1	0.65mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 733 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	712	$995	$1.40	45d	1	0.67mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 759 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	610	$895	$1.47	25d	1	0.67mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	15d	6	0.77mi
3213 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,095	$2.19	45d	1	0.77mi
4265 State St Unit 2 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$995	$1.99	45d	1	0.94mi
4242 State St Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	684	$1,325	$1.94	25d	1	1.00mi
1601 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	22d	2	1.02mi
1677 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	25d	1	1.03mi
909 Park Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,588	$1.69	15d	28	1.08mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	15d	1	1.08mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	45d	1	1.11mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	15d	11	1.15mi
1723 Park Ave NE Unit 1727C Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	643	$1,095	$1.70	45d	1	1.23mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 43 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	604	$1,150	$1.90	25d	1	1.24mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,918	$2.10	15d	25	1.24mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	15d	11	1.24mi
739 23rd St NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	868	$1,169	$1.35	22d	1	1.34mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	15d	26	1.40mi
2425 Lansing Ave NE Unit A Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-26
   price $45,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

2. 2025-11-20
   listed $50,000 Active 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $102 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 329.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$102
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $6,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3089.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $45,000 WVMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $50,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2012): $102 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.