876 41st Pl NE #31 · Salem, OR 97301

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 190 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Average condition $67/sqft · 39% below area Est $74k · 39% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• A/c ready
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR PAINT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• A/C READY
• CLOSE TO LANCASTER MALL
• CLOSE TO BUS TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (542 students, 71% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 53% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.44%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,372
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -39.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
807 41st Ave #66	0.08mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	10mo	$59,800	$89	88
2035 Evergreen Ave NE	1.43mi	2/1.0	690 (+3%)	4mo	$245,000	$355	57
4070 Beck Ave SE	1.35mi	2/1.0	648 (-4%)	3mo	$230,000	$355	57
420 Elma Ave SE	1.26mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (0%)	8mo	$316,000	$470	53
4915 Swegle Rd NE #51	0.99mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	2mo	$22,000	$31	52
3103 Tess Ave	0.91mi	2/1.0	633 (-6%)	7mo	$333,000	$526	50
4540 Auburn Rd NE	0.52mi	2/1.0	768 (+14%)	9mo	$304,500	$396	44
3090 D St NE	0.90mi	2/1.0	768 (+14%)	3mo	$313,500	$408	39
1065 22nd St NE	1.47mi	2/1.0	828 (+23%)	5mo	$345,000	$417	36
4849 State St #41	1.15mi	2/1.0	840 (+25%)	5mo	$89,900	$107	36
4849 State St	1.08mi	2/1.0	840 (+25%)	5mo	$89,900	$107	36
270 Kenwood Ave NE	0.90mi	2/1.0	832 (+24%)	7mo	$320,000	$385	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $22,854
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $51,201
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $67,450 ($102/sqft)
• Median days on market: 219 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 97301

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $102/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $333

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $532	+0% $519	+5% $506	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $441	-5% $480	+0% $519	+5% $558	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $542	-0.5pp $531	base $519	+0.5pp $507	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3695 D St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,650	$1.59	93d	3	0.49mi
4704 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	658	$1,472	$2.24	63d	15	0.58mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 803 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,225	$1.63	63d	1	0.65mi
793 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 837 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	750	$1,125	$1.50	63d	1	0.65mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 759 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	610	$895	$1.47	72d	1	0.67mi
721-759 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 733 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	712	$995	$1.40	93d	1	0.67mi
4154 Sunnyview Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,375	$1.71	63d	6	0.77mi
3213 Center St NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,095	$2.19	93d	1	0.77mi
4265 State St Unit 2 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$995	$1.99	93d	1	0.94mi
4242 State St Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	684	$1,325	$1.94	72d	1	1.00mi
1601 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	70d	2	1.02mi
1677 Savage Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	650	$1,000	$1.54	72d	1	1.03mi
909 Park Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,588	$1.69	63d	28	1.08mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	63d	1	1.08mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	93d	1	1.11mi
2489 Coral Ave NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	817	$1,301	$1.59	63d	11	1.15mi
1723 Park Ave NE Unit 1727C Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	643	$1,095	$1.70	93d	1	1.23mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 43 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	604	$1,150	$1.90	72d	1	1.24mi
102 Greencrest St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,918	$2.10	63d	25	1.24mi
2500 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$1,350	$1.75	63d	11	1.24mi
739 23rd St NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	868	$1,169	$1.35	70d	1	1.34mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	63d	26	1.40mi
2425 Lansing Ave NE Unit A Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	70d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-26
   price $45,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

2. 2025-11-20
   listed $50,000 Active 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   A 1979 trailer that has been updated through the years with interior and exterior paint, laminate flooring, A/C ready for the summer time. This is a great and affordable home, close to Lancaster Mall, restaurants,and close to bus transportation. This home is located on a Senior Park in NE Salem.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $102 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 329.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$102
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $4,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,360–$10,080 screening

This 1979 manufactured home has been updated with laminate flooring and paint, but could benefit from exterior painting and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Light green siding has some discoloration
• Minor Landscaping — Some plants and a fence are present, but could be improved

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Auburn Elementary School Middle Houck Middle School High North Salem High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 360,940 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 57,574
• Household income: $60,422
• Rent vs Own: 57.2% rent · 42.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -548.17%
• Current HPI: 335.8199
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $45,000 WVMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $50,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2012): $102 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.