22144 Erickson Ct · California, MD 20653

$202,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1983 0.36 ac lot $235/sqft · 10% below area Est $226k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This rancher home, located in the community of Discovery, is seated in a spacious lot approximately 0.36 acres and is perfect for outdoor activities or relaxing in a private setting. This home with 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom is in close proximity to daily conveniences such as local restaurants, food market and shopping center. Additionally, it is a few minutes away from Patuxent Naval Center and the marina.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Private setting
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• PRIVATE SETTING
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FOOD MARKET
• MINUTES AWAY FROM MARINA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $203k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $144k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,596 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,022
• List price: $202,950
• Delta: -10.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22186 Donaldson Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	5mo	$204,900	$237	86
22215 Erickson Ct	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (0%)	11mo	$225,000	$260	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,784
• Equity at exit: $30,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,359
• Equity at exit: $17,547

Cash invested: $56,826 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,064
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $202,950

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $341	+0% $284	+5% $226	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $205	+0% $284	+5% $363	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $335	base $284	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,738
• Closing costs: $6,088
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $202,950 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,950 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,950 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,950 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,950 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $202,950 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $202,950 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,950 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,950 Active 297 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $202,950 Active 296 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $202,950 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,950 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,950 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,950 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $202,950 Active 288 DOM
16. 2025-08-15
    listed $202,950 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    This rancher home, located in the community of Discovery, is seated in a spacious lot approximately 0.36 acres and is perfect for outdoor activities or relaxing in a private setting. This home with 3 bedrooms and a full bathroom is in close proximity to daily conveniences such as local restaurants, food market and shopping center. Additionally, it is a few minutes away from Patuxent Naval Center and the marina.

17. 2022-02-08
    soldstatus $144,000
18. 1982-11-15
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,368
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$1,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,904
• Taxable income: $107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1253.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $202,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,812 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.