95750 Jerrys Flat Rd #11 · Gold Beach, OR 97444

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 2018 Fair condition $74/sqft · 9% above area Est $50k · 9% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright and well-maintained newer 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in a smaller, peaceful park setting. This home features attractive cabinetry and a functional layout that makes great use of space. Enjoy a comfortable climate just out of the fog, offering more sunshine and pleasant living year-round. Ideally situated near the river with easy access to fishing, hiking, and a wide range of outdoor activities. A great opportunity for those seeking a cozy home in a quiet, nature-focused community. Shown by appointment only.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Built 2018
• Listed 63 days

Tags

• PEACEFUL PARK SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 2.3% in Gold Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#129 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Curry SD 1 (town): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #53 of 183 in OR (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Curry County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.49%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,353
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: 9.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $41,371
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $100,835
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97444

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $55,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Bright and well-maintained newer 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in a smaller, peaceful park setting. This home features attractive cabinetry and a functional layout that makes great use of space. Enjoy a comfortable climate just out of the fog, offering more sunshine and pleasant living year-round. Ideally situated near the river with easy access to fishing, hiking, and a wide range of outdoor activities. A great opportunity for those seeking a cozy home in a quiet, nature-focused community. Shown by appointment only.

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $60,000 Active 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    Bright and well-maintained newer 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in a smaller, peaceful park setting. This home features attractive cabinetry and a functional layout that makes great use of space. Enjoy a comfortable climate just out of the fog, offering more sunshine and pleasant living year-round. Ideally situated near the river with easy access to fishing, hiking, and a wide range of outdoor activities. A great opportunity for those seeking a cozy home in a quiet, nature-focused community. Shown by appointment only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥84°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $7,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and siding, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — Severe weathering
• Major Siding — Significant wear
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and durability
• Both Service HVAC units — Ensures efficient operation and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and durability ↑
• Both Service HVAC units — Ensures efficient operation and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Curry SD 1
• NCES district ID: 4105760
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,409
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #6773
• State rank: #53 of 183 in OR

Livability — Gold Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #7452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,794

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,781 people
• By 2030: 21,121 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 19,654 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 18,826 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 17,968 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 16,443 · -24.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: R (+16.1) · D 40.6% · R 56.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -11.5pp · 2024: -16.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.1 2020: R+16.2 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+11.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.20%
• Current HPI: 299.7389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $55,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $60,000 RMLS