12711 Shell Point Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 3,450 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For statistical purposes

Key facts

• 3,450 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential villa; Living area: 1,464 (per public records); Total building area: 2,010 (per public records)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with required approval; Annual association fee of $340 (monthly equivalent about $28.33); Association recreation (owned); Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; High‑speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Residential villa; One-story; Faces east; Platted in a PUD
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.08-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combination; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.41%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12711 Shell Point Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	0mo	$92,500	$63	100
12701 Shell Point Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (0%)	4mo	$218,000	$149	90
7519 Clanton Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	2mo	$249,000	$170	88
7559 Mediterranean Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$149	79
7212 Dipaola Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,496 (+2%)	6mo	$204,000	$136	77
7401 Country Club Dr	0.13mi	3/3.0	1,350 (-8%)	1mo	$165,000	$122	76
12302 Quail Run Row	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+4%)	0mo	$160,000	$105	69
12412 Rodeo Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	2mo	$216,000	$164	69
7710 Fairlawn Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+7%)	2mo	$285,000	$181	61
8200 Mill Creek Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+4%)	2mo	$242,500	$160	58
13037 Hillyer Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+5%)	2mo	$295,000	$192	56
8026 Hunters Whip Row Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-11%)	1mo	$270,000	$206	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $30,902
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $73,404
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.11mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	4d	1	0.13mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	4d	1	0.14mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.24mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.40mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.41mi
7216 Gulf Breeze Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,781	$1.17	4d	1	0.61mi
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	17d	1	0.65mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.67mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.67mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.70mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.87mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	0.87mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.87mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	24d	1	0.92mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.92mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	23d	1	0.92mi
13847 Maria Dr Hudson beach34674, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$3,000	$2.07	24d	1	1.02mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	1.03mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	1.03mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.04mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	4d	1	1.05mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	1.05mi
13121 Shadberry Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,889	$1.07	2d	1	1.07mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	4d	1	1.10mi
13428 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,450	$1.95	24d	1	1.10mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	1.16mi
6623 Boatyard Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	17d	1	1.18mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	1.18mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	1.18mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	1.18mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	1.19mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	1.19mi
13240 Starfish Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	24d	1	1.21mi
13617 Frances Ave Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	14d	1	1.22mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	24d	1	1.24mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	4d	1	1.26mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.27mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	1.27mi
13806 San Juan Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	24d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $8,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $7,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.