36581 Frangipani Dr · Winchester, CA 92596

$577,335

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $269/sqft · 13% below area Est $666k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome delivers modern flexibility with a first-floor bedroom and full bathroom-perfect for overnight guests, aging parents or anyone who appreciates main-level living. The first floor centers around an inviting Great Room that connects naturally with the dining area and kitchen, creating an ideal space for family gatherings and entertaining. The second floor is host to a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bathroom and walk-in closet, plus three additional bedrooms. A versatile loft provides bonus space for play, study or relaxation.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $577k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $526k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $460k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($543k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,118 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,838
• List price: $577,335
• Delta: -13.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29211 Santa Fe Spgs	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,992 (-7%)	2mo	$544,990	$274	69
34607 Sakura Ln	1.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,135 (-1%)	9mo	$569,990	$267	49
33134 Celadon Ave	1.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,028 (-6%)	2mo	$638,000	$315	47
34427 Sakura Ln	1.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,296 (+7%)	3mo	$645,220	$281	46
33226 Damask Ln	1.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,296 (+7%)	7mo	$607,095	$264	43
34439 Sakura Ln	1.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	3mo	$658,220	$267	33
34391 Sakura Ln	1.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	3mo	$668,220	$271	33
34040 Pink Pl	1.09mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,474 (+15%)	3mo	$719,990	$291	32
34438 Coconut Cir	1.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	4mo	$690,000	$280	32
33238 Damask Ln	1.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	5mo	$643,230	$261	32
33263 Damask Ln	1.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	8mo	$625,855	$254	29
34470 Sakura Ln	1.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,466 (+15%)	8mo	$609,990	$247	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $278,414
• Equity at exit: $520,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $813,651
• Equity at exit: $1,121,635

Cash invested: $161,654 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active
• Median asking: $651,440 ($267/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +16.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,028
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$722 /mo · $8,660/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$966
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,050

Max offer price $525,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-155	+0% $-355	+5% $-554	+10% $-754
Rent	-10% $-718	-5% $-537	+0% $-355	+5% $-173	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-208	base $-355	+0.5pp $-504	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,334
• Closing costs: $17,320
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32907 Cambury Pl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2641	$3,795	$1.44	88d	1	1.28mi
34427 Sakura Ln French Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	2296	$3,450	$1.50	67d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $602,335

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family residenceSpec home
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,149

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home - Residence Three planActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-27
   days on market $577,335 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-25
   days on market $577,335 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-24
   days on market $577,335 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-23
   days on market $577,335 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-22
   days on market $577,335 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-08-21
   days on market $577,335 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-08-20
   days on market $577,335 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-08-19
   days on market $577,335 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-08-18
   days on market $577,335 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-08-17
    days on market $577,335 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-08-16
    days on market $577,335 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-08-15
    days on market $577,335 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-08-14
    days on market $577,335 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-08-13
    days on market $577,335 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-08-12
    days on market $577,335 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-08-11
    days on market $577,335 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-08-10
    days on market $577,335 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-08-09
    days on market $577,335 Active 68 DOM
19. 2026-08-08
    days on market $577,335 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-08-06
    days on market $577,335 Active 65 DOM
21. 2026-08-05
    days on market $577,335 Active 64 DOM
22. 2026-08-04
    days on market $577,335 Active 63 DOM
23. 2026-08-03
    days on market $577,335 Active 62 DOM
24. 2026-07-31
    days on market $577,335 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-30
    days on market $577,335 Active 57 DOM
26. 2026-07-28
    days on market $577,335 Active 56 DOM
27. 2026-07-26
    days on market $577,335 Active 54 DOM
28. 2026-07-24
    days on market $577,335 Active 52 DOM
29. 2026-07-23
    days on market $577,335 Active 51 DOM
30. 2026-07-22
    days on market $577,335 Active 50 DOM
31. 2026-07-21
    days on market $577,335 Active 49 DOM
32. 2026-07-20
    days on market $577,335 Active 48 DOM
33. 2026-07-18
    days on market $577,335 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-07-18
    days on market $577,335 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-07-16
    days on market $577,335 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-07-15
    days on market $577,335 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-07-14
    days on market $577,335 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-07-13
    days on market $577,335 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-07-13
    days on market $577,335 Active 40 DOM
40. 2026-07-12
    price $577,335 Active 39 DOM
41. 2026-07-11
    days on market $587,835 Active 39 DOM
42. 2026-07-10
    days on market $587,835 Active 38 DOM
43. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $587,835 Active 37 DOM
44. 2026-07-07
    price $577,835 Active 35 DOM
45. 2026-07-07
    days on market $612,835 Active 35 DOM
46. 2026-07-06
    days on market $612,835 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-07-06
    days on market $612,835 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-07-05
    days on market $612,835 Active 32 DOM
49. 2026-07-03
    days on market $612,835 Active 31 DOM
50. 2026-07-02
    price $612,835 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,340
• − Property taxes: −$8,660
• − Insurance: −$2,887
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,417
• − Management: −$4,417
• − Depreciation: −$16,795
• Taxable loss: −$14,302
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,432
• After-tax cash flow: $-826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior stucco — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Susan La Vorgna Elementary Middle Bella Vista Middle High Chaparral High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $602,335

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family residenceSpec home
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,149

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home - Residence Three planActive listing